MLB matchup

09/19/20264:10 PMTropicana FieldSt. Petersburg, FL

Red Sox84 – 71vsRays94 – 60

Sharp side

✈️ Red Sox +125

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Boston Red Sox	3.4	43.8%
Tampa Bay Rays	4.0	56.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Boston Red Sox	B-	B	B
Tampa Bay Rays	B	B+	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+125+1.5 (-180)

TB-151-1.5 (+149)

Total 7.5Over -107Under -112

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+125+1.5 (-180)

TB-150-1.5 (+145)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+125+1.5 (-177)

TB-150-1.5 (+143)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -121

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+126+1.5 (-172)

TB-150-1.5 (+144)

Total 7.5Over -106Under -112

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+132+1.5 (-180)

TB-142-1.5 (+155)

Total 7.5Over +100Under -120

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+125+1.5 (-185)

TB-150-1.5 (+150)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+122+1.5 (-184)

TB-144-1.5 (+152)

Total 7.5Over -104Under -118

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+130+1.5 (-175)

TB-155-1.5 (+145)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

BOS+130+1.5 (-180)

TB-150-1.5 (+150)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Boston Red Sox

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U2–8–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/18/26	@ TB	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 7
9/17/26	@ TEX	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8
9/16/26	@ TEX	L 3–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/15/26	@ TEX	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	vs KC	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/12/26	vs KC	W 5–1	W -1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	vs KC	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs LAA	L 4–6	L -1.5	O 9
9/8/26	vs LAA	L 1–6	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/7/26	vs LAA	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall8–2–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/18/26	vs BOS	L 2–4	L -1.5	U 7
9/17/26	vs ATH	W 10–1	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/16/26	vs ATH	W 4–3	L -1.5	U 8
9/15/26	vs ATH	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 8
9/13/26	vs HOU	W 14–4	W -1.5	O 8
9/12/26	vs HOU	W 3–2	L -1.5	U 7.5
9/11/26	vs HOU	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/10/26	@ ATL	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 8
9/9/26	@ ATL	W 7–2	W +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ ATL	W 7–1	W -1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Red Sox and Rays
	Statistic
7.5 (8.3)	Hits	8.2 (8.7)
1.6 (1.8)	Doubles	1.3 (1.4)
0.8 (1.0)	Home Runs	0.9 (1.1)
11.9 (13.4)	Total Bases	12.6 (13.5)
3.0 (3.2)	Walks	3.1 (3.2)
8.5 (8.2)	Strikeouts	7.2 (7.1)
0.6 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	1.0 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

Red SoxBrayan BelloConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%

Total Outs Recorded12.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%

Total Strikeouts2.5Over-12455.4%Under-10250.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%

RaysFreddy PeraltaConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%

Total Hits Allowed3.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+11945.7%Under-15861.2%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+12744.1%Under-16261.8%

Total Walks Allowed2.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%

Starting lineups

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Roman AnthonyLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRoman Anthony+9709.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43818.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34777.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11147.4%Under-15360.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9109.9%Under-170094.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14058.3%
2Mickey GasperDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMickey Gasper+9909.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47917.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27027.0%Under-39779.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20967.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13642.4%Under-19065.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19666.2%
3Adley RutschmanC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAdley Rutschman+11008.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-16261.8%Under+12245.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31776.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18765.2%
4Wilyer AbreuRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterWilyer Abreu+9309.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43718.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26672.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20767.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9809.3%Under-190095.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24571.0%
5Nick Sogard1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Sogard+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48517.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13941.8%Under-18564.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27826.5%Under-41080.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27273.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9409.6%Under-180094.7%
6Trevor StorySS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTrevor Story+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50516.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10249.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25628.1%Under-37378.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26272.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13742.2%Under-19165.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+54115.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28625.9%Under-42380.9%
7Caleb Durbin3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCaleb Durbin+19804.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57114.9%Under-95090.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13941.8%Under-18665.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29625.3%Under-43881.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26372.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+59414.4%Under-100090.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28774.2%
8Jarren DuranCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJarren Duran+12007.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56215.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-12355.2%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25827.9%Under-37779.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28725.8%Under-42480.9%
9Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsiah Kiner-Falefa+32003.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56515.0%Under-94090.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10349.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+34022.7%Under-51383.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29174.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15160.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+71012.3%Under-124092.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36678.5%

Tampa Bay RaysConfirmed

1Jake FraleyDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Fraley+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47917.3%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-15360.5%Under+11546.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31524.1%Under-47182.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18064.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15360.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
2Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJonathan Aranda+12607.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38920.4%Under-59985.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15060.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10651.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
3Junior Caminero3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJunior Caminero+53015.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14358.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48517.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-25972.1%Under+19034.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-14058.3%Under+10648.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18564.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20367.0%
4Liam HicksC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLiam Hicks+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45418.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18364.7%Under+13742.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
5Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterChandler Simpson+38002.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43918.6%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits1.5Over+19034.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-19466.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+23529.9%Under-33977.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30924.4%Under-46082.1%
6Victor Mesa Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVictor Mesa Jr.+13007.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40519.8%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27073.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26227.6%Under-38379.3%
7Richie Palacios2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterRichie Palacios+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16762.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+49716.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35978.2%
8Cedric MullinsCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCedric Mullins+15406.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50216.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28173.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+55715.2%Under-92090.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26927.1%Under-39479.8%
9Jorge MateoSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJorge Mateo+16005.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59814.3%Under-100090.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17363.4%Under+12943.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34177.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24571.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18464.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+29825.1%Under-44281.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33323.1%Under-50283.4%

Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial