MLB matchup

09/19/20266:40 PMPNC ParkPittsburgh, PA75°F · Showers

Royals67 – 88vsPirates78 – 77

Sharp side

🏠 Pirates -119

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 8

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Kansas City Royals	4.1	47.8%
Pittsburgh Pirates	4.3	52.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Kansas City Royals	C	B-	C
Pittsburgh Pirates	C+	C+	C+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC-101-1.5 (+166)

PIT-119+1.5 (-202)

Total 8.0Over -104Under -115

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC-102-1.5 (+165)

PIT-118+1.5 (-200)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+102-1.5 (+165)

PIT-121+1.5 (-205)

Total 7.5Over -122Under +100

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC-103-1.5 (+162)

PIT-115+1.5 (-192)

Total 7.5Over -122Under +104

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+104-1.5 (+165)

PIT-114+1.5 (-190)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC-105-1.5 (+165)

PIT-115+1.5 (-205)

Total 8.0Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC-102-1.5 (+152)

PIT-116+1.5 (-184)

Total 7.5Over -128Under +104

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC-105-1.5 (+165)

PIT-115+1.5 (-200)

Total 7.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

KC+100-1.5 (+165)

PIT-120+1.5 (-200)

Total 7.5Over -125Under +105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Kansas City Royals

Overall3–7–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U1–9–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/18/26	@ PIT	L 5–8	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/17/26	@ HOU	L 2–6	L +1.5	U 9
9/16/26	@ HOU	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/15/26	@ HOU	L 2–4	L +1.5	U 8
9/13/26	@ BOS	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/12/26	@ BOS	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/11/26	@ BOS	W 3–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	vs ARI	W 5–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	vs ARI	L 3–5	L +1.5	U 9
9/7/26	vs ARI	L 4–5	W +1.5	U 9.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun line8–2–0W–L–PO/U5–4–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/18/26	vs KC	W 8–5	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/17/26	vs MIL	W 7–4	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/16/26	vs MIL	L 4–5	W +1.5	O 7.5
9/15/26	vs MIL	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/13/26	@ CHC	W 4–3	W +1.5	P 7
9/12/26	@ CHC	L 3–4	W +1.5	U 9.5
9/11/26	@ CHC	L 2–12	L +1.5	O 8.5
9/10/26	@ CHW	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 7.5
9/9/26	@ CHW	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 9
9/8/26	@ CHW	W 9–3	W +1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Royals and Pirates
	Statistic
8.0 (8.3)	Hits	8.4 (8.7)
1.8 (1.8)	Doubles	1.5 (1.6)
1.0 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.1)
13.1 (13.5)	Total Bases	13.2 (13.9)
3.1 (3.2)	Walks	3.4 (3.5)
7.8 (7.8)	Strikeouts	9.3 (9.3)
0.8 (0.8)	Stolen Bases	0.8 (0.8)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

RoyalsNoah CameronConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%

Total Hits Allowed5.5Over-10250.5%Under-13156.7%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+11346.9%Under-14559.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%

PiratesBubba ChandlerConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over-10250.5%Under-13156.7%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+11945.7%Under-15360.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-18965.4%Under+14141.5%

Starting lineups

Kansas City RoyalsConfirmed

1Carter JensenC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterCarter Jensen+74011.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36721.4%Under-56084.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13156.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14341.2%Under-19966.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
2Bobby Witt Jr.SS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterBobby Witt Jr.+9409.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30025.0%Under-44681.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-25271.6%Under+18535.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13056.5%Under-10250.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27473.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34422.5%Under-52183.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-28073.7%
3Jac CaglianoneDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJac Caglianone+72012.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36521.5%Under-55784.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-22268.9%Under+16537.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11653.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11746.1%Under-16261.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23929.5%Under-34677.6%
4Vinnie Pasquantino1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterVinnie Pasquantino+10009.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34122.7%Under-51583.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26972.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15961.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19766.3%
5Michael Massey2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Massey+12207.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18364.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+32923.3%Under-49483.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-20367.0%Under+15139.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14341.2%Under-19966.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10149.8%Under-14058.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43681.3%
6Nick Loftin3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Loftin+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35621.9%Under-54184.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-15460.6%Under+11646.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13243.1%Under-17663.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40380.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26072.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
7John RaveRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJohn Rave+16605.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48517.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18564.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26827.2%Under-39379.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24571.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17363.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+50016.7%Under-81089.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
8Kyle IsbelCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Isbel+20004.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49316.9%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27826.5%Under-41080.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+33622.9%Under-50783.5%
9Isaac CollinsLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Collins+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+44018.5%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10350.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-18464.8%Under+13842.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27426.7%Under-40280.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22869.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+71012.3%Under-126092.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19666.2%

Pittsburgh PiratesConfirmed

1Konnor GriffinSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterKonnor Griffin+16005.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15160.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+30824.5%Under-46082.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-27273.1%Under+20033.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32876.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14659.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10050.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49283.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30975.6%
2Oneil CruzDH
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOneil Cruz+73012.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36421.6%Under-55484.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-23770.3%Under+17536.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13256.9%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22669.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13357.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+48117.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
3Bryan ReynoldsLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterBryan Reynolds+12607.4%
Total Bases1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+34222.6%Under-51783.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-22869.5%Under+16937.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
4Rafael Flores Jr.C
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRafael Flores Jr.+14006.7%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40319.9%Under-63086.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-17964.2%Under+13442.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10249.5%Under-13657.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10947.8%Under-15060.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
5Brandon Lowe2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterBrandon Lowe+9409.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42219.2%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18164.4%Under+13642.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13357.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12245.0%Under-16962.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32876.6%
6Nick Gonzales3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterNick Gonzales+24004.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+14940.2%Under-19966.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38720.5%Under-59585.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-23370.0%Under+17336.6%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10551.2%Under-12655.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35978.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16138.3%Under-22769.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14158.5%Under+10249.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35878.2%
7Ryan O'Hearn1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRyan O'Hearn+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38720.5%Under-59585.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36578.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10748.3%Under-14859.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37578.9%
8Ronny SimonRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterRonny Simon+27003.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17663.8%Under+13243.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25528.2%Under-37278.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24671.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10451.0%Under-13256.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
9Jake MangumCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Mangum+33002.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46617.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27626.6%Under-40580.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25471.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41780.7%

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