MLB matchup

09/19/20267:10 PMDaikin ParkHouston, TX

Braves91 – 64vsAstros77 – 78

Sharp side

✈️ Braves +114

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 8.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Atlanta Braves	4.2	51.6%
Houston Astros	4.0	48.4%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Atlanta Braves	B+	B	B+
Houston Astros	B	B-	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+114+1.5 (-185)

HOU-137-1.5 (+152)

Total 8.5Over -120Under -101

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+115+1.5 (-185)

HOU-140-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over -118Under -102

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+114+1.5 (-186)

HOU-136-1.5 (+150)

Total 8.5Over -118Under -104

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+113+1.5 (-182)

HOU-132-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.5Over -119Under +101

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+117+1.5 (-185)

HOU-127-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5Over -105Under -115

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+110+1.5 (-180)

HOU-130-1.5 (+145)

Total 9.0Over +100Under -120

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+114+1.5 (-192)

HOU-134-1.5 (+158)

Total 8.5Over -128Under +104

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+110+1.5 (-190)

HOU-135-1.5 (+155)

Total 8.5Over -120Under +100

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

ATL+113+1.5 (-190)

HOU-128-1.5 (+160)

Total 8.5Over -125Under +105

Recent form

Last 10 games

Atlanta Braves

Overall5–5–0W–L–TRun line4–6–0W–L–PO/U7–2–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/18/26	@ HOU	W 6–2	W -1.5	P 8
9/16/26	@ CHC	L 4–8	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/15/26	@ CHC	W 6–3	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/14/26	@ CHC	L 3–7	L +1.5	O 9.5
9/13/26	vs PHI	L 4–9	L -1.5	O 9.5
9/12/26	vs PHI	W 12–2	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/11/26	vs PHI	W 6–5	L -1.5	O 7
9/10/26	vs TB	W 3–1	W -1.5	U 8
9/9/26	vs TB	L 2–7	L -1.5	O 8
9/8/26	vs TB	L 1–7	L +1.5	U 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Houston Astros

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U3–6–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/18/26	vs ATL	L 2–6	L +1.5	P 8
9/17/26	vs KC	W 6–2	W -1.5	U 9
9/16/26	vs KC	L 2–5	L -1.5	U 9
9/15/26	vs KC	W 4–2	W -1.5	U 8
9/13/26	@ TB	L 4–14	L +1.5	O 8
9/12/26	@ TB	L 2–3	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/11/26	@ TB	L 1–3	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/10/26	@ PHI	W 2–1	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/9/26	@ PHI	L 7–11	L +1.5	O 8
9/8/26	@ PHI	W 6–5	W +1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Braves and Astros
	Statistic
8.0 (8.4)	Hits	7.7 (8.0)
1.5 (1.6)	Doubles	1.4 (1.5)
1.2 (1.3)	Home Runs	1.3 (1.3)
13.1 (14.0)	Total Bases	13.0 (13.7)
2.8 (3.0)	Walks	3.1 (3.2)
8.2 (8.1)	Strikeouts	8.3 (8.3)
0.5 (0.5)	Stolen Bases	0.3 (0.3)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

BravesGrant HolmesConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11353.1%Under-11854.1%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%

Total Strikeouts3.5Over-14759.5%Under+11646.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-15160.2%Under+11446.7%

AstrosHayden WesneskiConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12045.5%Under-15961.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-16962.8%Under+12644.2%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+11446.7%Under-14559.2%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11753.9%

Starting lineups

Atlanta BravesConfirmed

1Drake BaldwinDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDrake Baldwin+83010.8%
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39120.4%Under-60085.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-24170.7%Under+17836.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12755.9%Under-10451.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29574.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12655.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20467.1%
2Ronald Acuna Jr.RF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterRonald Acuna Jr.+81011.0%
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-18064.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45817.9%Under-73088.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-19866.4%Under+14840.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19434.0%Under-27673.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13757.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13043.5%Under-18164.4%
3Matt Olson1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMatt Olson+71012.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37421.1%Under-57285.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-20667.3%Under+15439.4%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11753.9%Under-11453.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12644.2%Under-17463.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12245.0%Under-17063.0%
4Michael Harris IICF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterMichael Harris II+11008.3%
Total Bases1.5Over+11446.7%Under-15260.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+35721.9%Under-54284.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-24671.1%Under+18235.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18264.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11453.3%Under-12154.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+73012.0%Under-128092.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47282.5%
5Mauricio DubonSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterMauricio Dubon+22004.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55115.4%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-18765.2%Under+14041.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34777.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24571.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9909.2%Under-192095.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+28226.2%Under-41680.6%
6Ozzie Albies2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterOzzie Albies+14606.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43618.7%Under-69087.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31676.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15660.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10009.1%Under-198095.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
7Mike YastrzemskiLF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterMike Yastrzemski+13406.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50416.6%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25228.4%Under-36778.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25271.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24571.0%
8Austin Riley3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAustin Riley+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56215.1%Under-93090.3%
Total Hits0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21331.9%Under-30575.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15139.8%Under-21267.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14640.7%Under-20367.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29474.6%
9Sean MurphyC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterSean Murphy+18805.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+75011.8%Under-134093.1%
Total Hits0.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31324.2%Under-46782.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18535.1%Under-26372.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28974.3%

Houston AstrosConfirmed

1Jeremy PenaSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJeremy Pena+10608.6%
Total Bases1.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41419.5%Under-65086.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-24971.3%Under+18435.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29274.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10851.9%Under-12856.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12856.1%Under-10851.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+86010.4%Under-160094.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24928.7%Under-36278.4%
2Yordan AlvarezDH
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYordan Alvarez+70012.5%
Total Bases1.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+33622.9%Under-50683.5%
Total Hits1.5Over+20033.3%Under-27373.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs2.5Over+11845.9%Under-15761.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+13642.4%Under-19065.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-14358.8%Under+10449.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over-11353.1%Under-12255.0%
3Isaac Paredes3B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterIsaac Paredes+10608.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13342.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17836.0%Under-25171.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16662.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11945.7%Under-16462.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
4Jose Altuve2B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJose Altuve+15206.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+14740.5%Under-19766.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45618.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-20867.5%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12255.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18435.2%Under-26172.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13342.9%Under-18464.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11653.7%Under-11954.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19633.8%Under-27973.6%
5Yainer DiazC
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterYainer Diaz+16605.7%
Total Bases1.5Over+14940.2%Under-19966.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50916.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-22068.8%Under+16338.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+27926.4%Under-41180.4%
6Daulton VarshoCF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDaulton Varsho+17005.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46517.7%Under-74088.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20932.4%Under-29874.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19365.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-18064.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+81011.0%Under-148093.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24771.2%
7Christian Walker1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterChristian Walker+13606.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52715.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15360.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20233.1%Under-28974.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18965.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14840.3%Under-20667.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
8Cam SmithRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterCam Smith+17605.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50116.6%Under-81089.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21731.5%Under-31175.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18364.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+9309.7%Under-176094.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
9LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLaMonte Wade Jr.+29003.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+62013.9%Under-106091.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12255.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31524.1%Under-47082.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%

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