MLB matchup

09/19/20268:40 PMPetco ParkSan Diego, CA75°F · Mostly sunny

Marlins76 – 79vsPadres86 – 69

Sharp side

🏠 Padres -159

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 7.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Miami Marlins	3.3	42.4%
San Diego Padres	4.1	57.6%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Starter	Overall
Miami Marlins	C	B-	C+
San Diego Padres	B	B	B

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+131+1.5 (-169)

SD-159-1.5 (+139)

Total 7.5Over -107Under -113

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+125+1.5 (-170)

SD-155-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+138+1.5 (-165)

SD-165-1.5 (+133)

Total 7.5Over -108Under -113

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+130+1.5 (-167)

SD-152-1.5 (+142)

Total 7.5Over -108Under -109

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+139+1.5 (-160)

SD-150-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over -115Under -105

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+130+1.5 (-170)

SD-155-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over -105Under -115

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+126+1.5 (-184)

SD-148-1.5 (+150)

Total 7.5Over -108Under -110

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+130+1.5 (-170)

SD-155-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun line

MIA+130+1.5 (-165)

SD-150-1.5 (+140)

Total 7.5Over -110Under -110

Recent form

Last 10 games

Miami Marlins

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun line5–5–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/18/26	@ SD	L 2–8	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/16/26	@ ARI	W 4–3	W +1.5	U 9
9/15/26	@ ARI	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 8.5
9/14/26	@ ARI	L 7–8	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/13/26	vs LAD	W 6–4	W +1.5	O 8.5
9/12/26	vs LAD	W 4–3	W +1.5	U 8
9/11/26	vs LAD	L 2–6	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/9/26	vs NYM	L 14–15	L -1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	vs NYM	L 5–7	L +1.5	O 8
9/7/26	vs NYM	L 4–9	L -1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

San Diego Padres

Overall9–1–0W–L–TRun line6–4–0W–L–PO/U9–0–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run line	Total
9/18/26	vs MIA	W 8–2	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/17/26	@ COL	W 9–2	W -1.5	P 11
9/16/26	@ COL	W 9–3	W -1.5	O 11
9/15/26	@ COL	L 3–9	L -1.5	O 11
9/14/26	@ COL	W 8–7	L -1.5	O 11
9/13/26	@ SF	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/12/26	@ SF	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 8
9/11/26	@ SF	W 7–5	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/9/26	vs WSH	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 8.5
9/8/26	vs WSH	W 5–4	L -1.5	O 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Marlins and Padres
	Statistic
7.4 (8.3)	Hits	7.8 (8.1)
1.3 (1.5)	Doubles	1.4 (1.4)
0.8 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.1)
11.5 (13.3)	Total Bases	12.6 (13.2)
3.1 (3.3)	Walks	3.3 (3.4)
8.4 (8.3)	Strikeouts	8.1 (8.0)
1.0 (1.0)	Stolen Bases	0.9 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

MarlinsEury PerezConfirmed

Player props4 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+12843.9%Under-17063.0%

Total Outs Recorded15.5Over+13143.3%Under-17563.6%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+11247.2%Under-14358.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over-19666.2%Under+14640.7%

PadresCasey MizeConfirmed

Player props4 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-16762.5%Under+12544.4%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+11047.6%Under-14058.3%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+16837.3%Under-22669.3%

Starting lineups

Miami MarlinsConfirmed

1Otto LopezSS
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterOtto Lopez+11408.1%
Total Bases1.5Over+11646.3%Under-15460.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36421.6%Under-55584.7%
Total Hits1.5Over+18934.6%Under-25772.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10249.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20532.8%Under-29374.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-16261.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+34822.3%Under-52784.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+31424.2%Under-46982.4%
2Heriberto HernandezLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterHeriberto Hernandez+74011.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50916.4%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15560.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21032.3%Under-30175.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17463.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+69012.7%Under-122092.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17336.6%Under-24470.9%
3Kyle Stowers1B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterKyle Stowers+71012.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49516.8%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18635.0%Under-26472.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20867.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23030.3%Under-33176.8%
4Javier Sanoja3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJavier Sanoja+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39020.4%Under-60085.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37478.9%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11854.1%Under-11753.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+61014.1%Under-104091.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+34322.6%Under-51883.8%
5Xavier Edwards2B
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterXavier Edwards+23004.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46917.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12444.6%Under-16562.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29425.4%Under-43681.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13156.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20432.9%Under-29274.5%
6Jakob MarseeCF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJakob Marsee+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52016.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-14258.7%Under+10748.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13642.4%Under-18264.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35878.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16662.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
7Agustin RamirezDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterAgustin Ramirez+12207.6%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49816.7%Under-80088.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11446.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17463.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22730.6%Under-32776.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25772.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17163.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32323.6%Under-48482.9%
8Joe MackC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterJoe Mack+15206.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-10150.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31823.9%Under-47582.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32576.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17736.1%Under-25071.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+30124.9%Under-44681.7%
9Esteury RuizRF
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterEsteury Ruiz+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Hits0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11353.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+39020.4%Under-60085.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22930.4%Under-33176.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24270.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32723.4%Under-49183.1%

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.2B
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterFernando Tatis Jr.+79011.2%
Total Bases1.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+37321.1%Under-57085.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-25071.4%Under+18535.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-13958.2%Under+10449.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16737.5%Under-23570.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11152.6%Under-12555.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+28026.3%Under-41380.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13442.7%Under-18665.0%
2Dustin HarrisRF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterDustin Harris+18205.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49116.9%Under-79088.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10947.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27626.6%Under-40680.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20266.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16161.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+30824.5%Under-45982.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14141.5%Under-19666.2%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterManny Machado+89010.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42319.1%Under-66086.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10851.9%Under-12355.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+11247.2%Under-15660.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11646.3%Under-16061.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10808.5%Under-220095.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15260.3%
4Ty France1B
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterTy France+10808.5%
Total Bases1.5Over+13742.2%Under-18264.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43118.8%Under-68087.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-21368.1%Under+15838.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16338.0%Under-22969.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12755.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29874.9%
5Jackson MerrillCF
Player props10 markets
First Home Run HitterJackson Merrill+10208.9%
Total Bases1.5Over+13542.6%Under-18064.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39620.2%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-20066.7%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+17236.8%Under-24370.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12444.6%Under-17263.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+56914.9%Under-94090.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31776.0%
6Luis CampusanoDH
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterLuis Campusano+15206.2%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48217.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10848.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16762.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23429.9%Under-33977.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14940.2%Under-20967.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+12344.8%Under-17063.0%
7Jake CronenworthSS
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterJake Cronenworth+21004.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58714.6%Under-98090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-12455.4%Under-10751.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-18464.8%Under+13842.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26127.7%Under-38179.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18364.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10408.8%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
8Samad TaylorLF
Player props9 markets
First Home Run HitterSamad Taylor+25003.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+58214.7%Under-97090.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17263.2%Under+12943.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+29525.3%Under-43781.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16762.5%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47382.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
9Freddy FerminC
Player props8 markets
First Home Run HitterFreddy Fermin+19604.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59114.5%Under-99090.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-10952.2%Under-12154.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14559.2%Under+11047.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39279.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18934.6%Under-26872.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+16238.2%Under-22769.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35878.2%

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