MLB matchup

09/30/20268:00 PMYankee StadiumBronx, NY72°F · Mostly clear

Red Sox87 – 75vsYankees93 – 68

Sharp side

🏠 Yankees -136

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 6.5

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Boston Red Sox	2.6	41.8%
New York Yankees	3.4	58.2%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Pitching	Overall
Boston Red Sox	B-	A-	B
New York Yankees	B	A	A-

Featured analysis

Matchup preview

Oil painting of Yankee Stadium on game day

Red Sox vs. Yankees Preview: Can Boston Answer After the Game 1 Shutout?Boston turns to Sonny Gray after a 9-0 loss, while Max Fried and the Yankees try to maintain control without Aaron Judge in the lineup.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun Line

BOS+113+1.5 (-194)

NYY-136-1.5 (+159)

Total 6.5Over -122Under +102

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun Line

BOS+120+1.5 (-200)

NYY-140-1.5 (+165)

Total 6.5Over -120Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun Line

BOS+123+1.5 (-182)

NYY-148-1.5 (+148)

Total 6.5Over -120Under -103

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun Line

BOS+118+1.5 (-196)

NYY-137-1.5 (+166)

Total 6.5Over -122Under +104

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun Line

BOS+120+1.5 (-193)

NYY-130-1.5 (+168)

Total 6.5Over -120Under +100

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun Line

BOS+115+1.5 (-190)

NYY-140-1.5 (+155)

Total 6.5Over -120Under +100

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun Line

BOS+116+1.5 (-192)

NYY-136-1.5 (+158)

Total 6.5Over -122Under +100

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun Line

BOS+115+1.5 (-195)

NYY-140-1.5 (+160)

Total 6.5Over -125Under +105

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun Line

BOS+126+1.5 (-190)

NYY-136-1.5 (+160)

Total 6.5Over -120Under +100

Recent form

Last 10 games

Boston Red Sox

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun Line4–6–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
9/29/26	@ NYY	L 0–9	L +1.5	O 6
9/27/26	vs CHC	L 2–6	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/25/26	vs CHC	W 2–0	W +1.5	U 6.5
9/25/26	vs CHC	W 4–3	W +1.5	O 6.5
9/24/26	vs CLE	L 0–1	L -1.5	U 6.5
9/23/26	vs CLE	W 1–0	L -1.5	U 6.5
9/22/26	vs CLE	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 6
9/20/26	@ TB	L 1–5	L +1.5	U 7.5
9/19/26	@ TB	L 1–2	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/18/26	@ TB	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 7

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

New York Yankees

Overall6–4–0W–L–TRun Line6–4–0W–L–PO/U9–1–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
9/29/26	vs BOS	W 9–0	W -1.5	O 6
9/25/26	vs BAL	W 6–3	W +1.5	O 6.5
9/25/26	vs BAL	L 2–10	L +1.5	O 7
9/24/26	vs TB	W 6–4	W -1.5	O 6
9/23/26	vs TB	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 6.5
9/22/26	vs TB	L 1–6	L -1.5	O 6
9/22/26	vs TB	W 2–0	W -1.5	U 6.5
9/20/26	@ ARI	L 4–8	L +1.5	O 8
9/19/26	@ ARI	L 3–5	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/18/26	@ ARI	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Red Sox and Yankees
	Statistic
6.9 (8.1)	Hits	6.8 (7.8)
1.5 (1.7)	Doubles	1.2 (1.4)
0.7 (1.0)	Home Runs	1.1 (1.4)
10.8 (13.1)	Total Bases	11.6 (13.5)
2.9 (3.2)	Walks	3.2 (3.5)
8.6 (8.2)	Strikeouts	9.5 (9.2)
0.5 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.8 (0.9)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

Red SoxSonny GrayConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-13156.7%Under-10150.2%

Total Hits Allowed3.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+10748.3%Under-13657.6%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13457.3%

YankeesMax FriedConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%

Total Outs Recorded16.5Over-14158.5%Under+10648.5%

Total Strikeouts5.5Over+10249.5%Under-13056.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+10449.0%Under-13858.0%

Starting lineups

Boston Red SoxConfirmed

1Jahmai JonesDH
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+55315.3%Under-91090.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-12355.2%Under-10851.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32123.8%Under-48082.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17636.2%Under-24971.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24329.2%Under-35277.9%
2Adley RutschmanC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48817.0%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14640.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14759.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25728.0%Under-37679.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11854.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16338.0%Under-23069.7%
3Willson Contreras1B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47517.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11746.1%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+25128.5%Under-36578.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+14241.3%Under-19866.4%
4Wilyer AbreuRF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40819.7%Under-64086.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-17463.5%Under+13143.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15260.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+11845.9%Under-16362.0%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23370.0%
5Ceddanne RafaelaCF
Player props6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45018.2%Under-71087.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-16762.5%Under+12644.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16862.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+27526.7%Under-40480.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18734.8%Under-26572.6%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13858.0%
6Caleb Durbin3B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48517.1%Under-78088.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-16362.0%Under+12344.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31724.0%Under-47482.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22231.1%Under-31976.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13256.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+66013.2%Under-114091.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
7Nick Sogard2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53015.9%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11346.9%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-18264.5%Under+13642.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31124.3%Under-46482.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21132.2%Under-30275.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
8Trevor StorySS
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50616.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32523.5%Under-48783.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31676.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12145.2%Under-16862.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+69012.7%Under-122092.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+32323.6%Under-48582.9%
9Nate EatonLF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11954.3%Under-11152.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+35522.0%Under-53984.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+26327.5%Under-38479.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15439.4%Under-21668.4%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+44818.2%Under-71087.7%

New York YankeesConfirmed

1Ben RiceDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10648.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45418.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-25371.7%Under+18635.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11152.6%Under-11954.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19034.5%Under-27173.0%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13557.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18865.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
2Cody BellingerLF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13941.8%Under-18665.0%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+42918.9%Under-67087.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-20867.5%Under+15539.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10149.8%Under-13557.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+13941.8%Under-19466.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12856.1%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10208.9%Under-198095.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+20732.6%Under-29674.7%
3Luis Garcia Jr.1B
4Spencer JonesRF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53215.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-13757.8%Under+10349.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16862.7%Under+12644.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17436.5%Under-24671.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22168.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+65013.3%Under-112091.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23629.8%Under-34177.3%
5George Lombard Jr.SS
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51316.3%Under-83089.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-16161.7%Under+12145.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12744.1%Under-16962.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24129.3%Under-34977.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27773.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10648.5%Under-14659.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+87010.3%Under-162094.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
6Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54015.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12145.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26627.3%Under-38979.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25471.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15738.9%Under-22068.8%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+37421.1%Under-57285.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32576.5%
7Trent GrishamCF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52715.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-13858.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17163.1%Under+12843.9%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24728.8%Under-35978.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+10208.9%Under-210095.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15639.1%Under-21968.7%
8Austin WellsC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+56515.0%Under-94090.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-12956.3%Under-10350.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+32123.8%Under-48282.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21531.7%Under-30875.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+18235.5%Under-25872.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+22630.7%Under-32676.5%
9Ryan McMahon3B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+67013.0%Under-116092.1%
Total Hits0.5Over+11346.9%Under-15060.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+37920.9%Under-58185.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32576.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+20133.2%Under-28674.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26727.2%Under-39179.6%

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