MLB matchup

09/30/202610:00 PMPetco ParkSan Diego, CA71°F · Mostly clear

Cubs89 – 73vsPadres91 – 71

Sharp side

✈️ Cubs +123

Model value

Sharp total

↓ Under 7

Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Chicago Cubs	3.2	50.0%
San Diego Padres	3.2	50.0%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Pitching	Overall
Chicago Cubs	A-	B+	A-
San Diego Padres	B+	B	B

Featured analysis

Matchup preview

Oil painting of Petco Park on baseball game day

Cubs vs. Padres Preview: Can Chicago Reset After Game 1?San Diego enters Game 2 as the moneyline favorite after an 8-0 win, but Chicago’s season-long scoring strength and closely matched hitting projections make the rematch more interesting than the opener suggests.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun Line

CHC+123+1.5 (-179)

SD-149-1.5 (+147)

Total 7.0Over -126Under +104

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineRun Line

CHC+120+1.5 (-190)

SD-145-1.5 (+155)

Total 7.0Over -120Under +100

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineRun Line

CHC+125+1.5 (-177)

SD-150-1.5 (+145)

Total 7.0Over -121Under +100

Caesars

TeamMoneylineRun Line

CHC+125+1.5 (-189)

SD-150-1.5 (+159)

Total 7.0Over -117Under -102

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineRun Line

CHC+122+1.5 (-183)

SD-132-1.5 (+158)

Total 7.0Over -110Under -110

Fanatics

TeamMoneylineRun Line

CHC+120+1.5 (-205)

SD-145-1.5 (+165)

Total 7.0Over -115Under -105

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineRun Line

CHC+116+1.5 (-192)

SD-136-1.5 (+158)

Total 7.5Over +104Under -128

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineRun Line

CHC+125+1.5 (-185)

SD-145-1.5 (+150)

Total 7.5Over +105Under -125

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineRun Line

CHC+121+1.5 (-180)

SD-136-1.5 (+150)

Total 7.5Over +115Under -135

Recent form

Last 10 games

Chicago Cubs

Overall4–6–0W–L–TRun Line3–7–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
9/29/26	@ SD	L 0–8	L +1.5	O 7.5
9/27/26	vs BOS	W 6–2	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/25/26	@ BOS	L 0–2	L -1.5	U 6.5
9/25/26	@ BOS	L 3–4	L -1.5	O 6.5
9/24/26	vs MIA	W 2–1	L -1.5	U 7
9/23/26	vs MIA	L 2–3	L -1.5	U 6.5
9/22/26	vs MIA	L 2–8	L -1.5	O 6.5
9/20/26	@ CIN	W 9–1	W -1.5	O 9.5
9/19/26	@ CIN	W 5–2	W -1.5	U 9
9/18/26	@ CIN	L 4–6	L -1.5	O 8.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

San Diego Padres

Overall8–2–0W–L–TRun Line7–3–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
9/29/26	vs CHC	W 8–0	W -1.5	O 7.5
9/27/26	vs ARI	W 9–4	W +1.5	O 8
9/26/26	vs ARI	W 10–7	W -1.5	O 8
9/25/26	vs ARI	L 4–11	L +1.5	O 8
9/24/26	@ LAD	W 4–2	W +1.5	U 7.5
9/23/26	@ LAD	W 5–1	W +1.5	U 8
9/22/26	@ LAD	L 0–7	L +1.5	U 8.5
9/20/26	vs MIA	W 7–3	W -1.5	O 8
9/19/26	vs MIA	W 7–6	L -1.5	O 7.5
9/18/26	vs MIA	W 8–2	W -1.5	O 7.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Cubs and Padres
	Statistic
6.9 (8.5)	Hits	7.0 (8.1)
1.4 (1.6)	Doubles	1.2 (1.4)
0.9 (1.4)	Home Runs	0.9 (1.1)
11.3 (14.5)	Total Bases	11.0 (13.2)
3.6 (4.1)	Walks	3.1 (3.4)
8.7 (8.4)	Strikeouts	8.4 (8.1)
0.6 (0.7)	Stolen Bases	0.9 (1.0)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

CubsKevin GausmanConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-16462.1%Under+12344.8%

Total Hits Allowed4.5Over+12943.7%Under-17163.1%

Total Outs Recorded14.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over+13243.1%Under-16962.8%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18564.9%

PadresNick PivettaConfirmed

Player props5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-12555.6%Under-10651.5%

Total Hits Allowed3.5Over-10651.5%Under-12555.6%

Total Outs Recorded13.5Over-11353.1%Under-11753.9%

Total Strikeouts4.5Over-12154.8%Under-10651.5%

Total Walks Allowed1.5Over+15838.8%Under-21267.9%

Starting lineups

Chicago CubsConfirmed

1Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+11147.4%Under-14759.5%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38320.7%Under-58985.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-20567.2%Under+15339.5%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16937.2%Under-23870.4%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13143.3%Under-18364.7%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35678.1%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
2Alex BregmanDH
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18564.9%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38120.8%Under-58485.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10349.3%Under-13757.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+20632.7%Under-29474.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10249.5%Under-14158.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21468.2%
3Michael Busch1B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+48017.2%Under-77088.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-13457.3%Under+10149.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-17864.0%Under+13442.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24628.9%Under-35778.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18135.6%Under-25671.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+14441.0%Under-20166.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16437.9%Under-23169.8%
4Seiya SuzukiRF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50616.5%Under-82089.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-15961.4%Under+11945.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+22131.2%Under-31876.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21368.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13243.1%Under-18464.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+13842.0%Under-19265.8%
5Ian HappLF
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54015.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-11252.8%Under-11954.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-13958.2%Under+10548.8%
Total RBIs0.5Over+30824.5%Under-45982.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20333.0%Under-29074.4%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+17037.0%Under-24070.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
6Nico Hoerner2B
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+46817.6%Under-75088.2%
Total Hits0.5Over-19365.9%Under+14441.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+12245.0%Under-16362.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+31624.0%Under-47282.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+20832.5%Under-29774.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+48417.1%Under-78088.6%
7Matt Shaw3B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51516.3%Under-84089.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-12655.8%Under-10551.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16962.8%Under+12744.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+23330.0%Under-33777.1%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31575.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18965.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+54115.6%Under-89089.9%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38679.4%
8Carson KellyC
Player props7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52915.9%Under-86089.6%
Total Hits0.5Over-13657.6%Under+10349.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16562.3%Under+12444.6%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41780.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+12943.7%Under-17964.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25628.1%Under-37378.9%
9Dansby SwansonSS
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54915.4%Under-90090.0%
Total Hits0.5Over-12154.8%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15160.2%Under+11446.7%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28326.1%Under-41880.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+18335.3%Under-25972.1%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15239.7%Under-21267.9%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+69012.7%Under-120092.3%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+23529.9%Under-34077.3%

San Diego PadresConfirmed

1Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+36221.6%Under-55184.6%
Total Hits1.5Over+17037.0%Under-23069.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-15660.9%Under+11746.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+16837.3%Under-23770.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over-11252.8%Under-12355.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-14459.0%Under+10449.0%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+33922.8%Under-51183.6%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+17935.8%Under-25371.7%
2Dustin HarrisLF
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45518.0%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-19666.2%Under+14640.7%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+10848.1%Under-14459.0%
Total RBIs0.5Over+28426.0%Under-41980.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-12455.4%Under-11152.6%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+41019.6%Under-64086.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+25328.3%Under-36878.6%
3Manny Machado3B
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13842.0%Under-18464.8%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
Total Hits0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14540.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10751.7%Under-12455.4%
Total RBIs0.5Over+15339.5%Under-21568.3%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12843.9%Under-17763.9%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10848.1%Under-14959.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+19733.7%Under-28073.7%
4Ty France1B
Player props8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14141.5%Under-18865.3%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39220.3%Under-61085.9%
Total Hits0.5Over-19966.6%Under+14940.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-10250.5%Under-13056.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19666.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+10449.0%Under-14358.8%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29225.5%Under-43381.2%
5Jackson MerrillCF
Player props9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16462.1%
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+38420.7%Under-59085.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-22969.6%Under+17037.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%
Total RBIs0.5Over+18834.7%Under-26772.8%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+12744.1%Under-17663.8%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10751.7%Under-12956.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+64013.5%Under-110091.7%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+29725.2%Under-44181.5%
6Xander BogaertsSS
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45318.1%Under-72087.8%
Total Hits0.5Over-18665.0%Under+13941.8%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs1.5Over+11047.6%Under-14659.3%
Total RBIs0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34877.7%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+14740.5%Under-20667.3%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over-10350.7%Under-13457.3%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+52116.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+16038.5%Under-22469.1%
7Ethan SalasC
Player props6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+53115.8%Under-87089.7%
Total Hits0.5Over-12255.0%Under-10952.2%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-14959.8%Under+11247.2%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26027.8%Under-38179.2%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21768.5%
8Austin HaysDH
Player props6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52016.1%Under-85089.5%
Total Hits0.5Over-13357.1%Under+10050.0%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+26427.5%Under-38779.5%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19134.4%Under-27173.0%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
9Jake Cronenworth2B
Player props8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+67013.0%Under-116092.1%
Total Hits0.5Over-11753.9%Under-11453.3%
Total Hits + Runs + RBIs0.5Over-15260.3%Under+11546.5%
Total RBIs0.5Over+33722.9%Under-50983.6%
Total Runs Scored0.5Over+19234.2%Under-27373.2%
Total Singles Hit0.5Over+13642.4%Under-18965.4%
Total Stolen Bases0.5Over+87010.3%Under-162094.2%
Total Walks (Batter)0.5Over+21931.3%Under-31475.8%

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