MLB matchup

10/01/20268:00 PMTruist ParkAtlanta, GA79°F · Mostly clear

Phillies88 – 74vsBraves94 – 68

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Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Pitching	Overall
Philadelphia Phillies	A-	B+	A-
Atlanta Braves	B+	A-	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun Line

PHI-106-1.5 (+162)

ATL-114+1.5 (-198)

Total 7.5Over -102Under -118

Recent form

Last 3 games

Philadelphia Phillies

Overall2–1–0W–L–TRun Line1–2–0W–L–PO/U2–0–1O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
9/30/26	@ ATL	W 4–3	L -1.5	P 7
9/29/26	@ ATL	L 3–5	L +1.5	O 6.5
9/27/26	vs TB	W 7–3	W -1.5	O 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Atlanta Braves

Overall1–2–0W–L–TRun Line2–1–0W–L–PO/U1–0–2O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
9/30/26	vs PHI	L 3–4	W +1.5	P 7
9/29/26	vs PHI	W 5–3	W -1.5	O 6.5
9/27/26	@ MIA	L 3–5	L +1.5	P 8

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Phillies and Braves
	Statistic
7.2 (8.0)	Hits	7.6 (8.3)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

PhilliesAaron NolaConfirmed

Player props1 of 5 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-12054.5%Under-11052.4%

BravesRay KerrConfirmed

Starting lineups

Philadelphia PhilliesConfirmed

1Trea TurnerSS
Player props1 of 9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14258.7%
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2Kyle SchwarberDH
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40819.7%Under-64086.5%
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3Bryce HarperRF
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16762.5%
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4Alec Bohm1B
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
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5Bryson Stott2B
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45018.2%Under-71087.7%
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6Bryan De La CruzLF
7Edmundo Sosa3B
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+43818.6%Under-69087.3%
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8J.T. RealmutoC
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45518.0%Under-72087.8%
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9Justin CrawfordCF
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+57314.9%Under-95090.5%
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Atlanta BravesConfirmed

1Drake BaldwinC
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16662.4%
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2Ronald Acuna Jr.RF
Player props1 of 9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+11746.1%Under-15660.9%
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3Matt Olson1B
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13143.3%Under-17463.5%
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4Michael Harris IICF
Player props1 of 9 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+13442.7%Under-17964.2%
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5Mauricio DubonSS
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+40219.9%Under-62086.1%
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6Mike YastrzemskiLF
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49416.8%Under-80088.9%
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7Austin Riley3B
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+47417.4%Under-76088.4%
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8Ozzie Albies2B
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+49016.9%Under-79088.8%
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9Dominic SmithDH
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+68012.8%Under-118092.2%
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Player availability

Injury report

Philadelphia Phillies

RFAdolis GarciaLat60-Day-IL
The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Updated: Jun 24, 2026 at 3:23 PM EDT
RPBrad KellerElbow60-Day-IL
Keller underwent right elbow UCL reconstruction surgery with internal brace and flexor tendon repair Tuesday, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Updated: Jul 29, 2026 at 7:34 PM EDT
RPCaleb KilianOblique60-Day-IL
The Phillies transferred Kilian (oblique) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Updated: Sep 17, 2026 at 3:50 PM EDT

Atlanta Braves

SPBryce ElderKnee15-Day-IL
Elder (knee) threw a live batting practice session Monday, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
Updated: Sep 28, 2026 at 2:47 PM EDT
SPHurston WaldrepElbow60-Day-IL
Atlanta recalled Waldrep (elbow) from Triple-A Gwinnett on Thursday and placed him on the 60-day injured list.
Updated: Sep 24, 2026 at 6:45 PM EDT
RPJoe JimenezKnee60-Day-IL
Jimenez (knee) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Gwinnett on Tuesday.
Updated: Sep 15, 2026 at 10:39 AM EDT

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