MLB matchup

10/03/20266:30 PMTropicana FieldSt. Petersburg, FL

Yankees93 – 68vsRays98 – 64

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Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Lineup	Pitching	Overall
New York Yankees	B	A	A-
Tampa Bay Rays	B	A-	B+

Sportsbook context

Game lines

A dash means that book has not supplied a usable price.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineRun Line

NYY+113+1.5 (-199)

TB-136-1.5 (+163)

Total 7.0Over -107Under -113

Recent form

Last 3 games

New York Yankees

Overall3–0–0W–L–TRun Line3–0–0W–L–PO/U3–0–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
9/30/26	vs BOS	W 9–2	W -1.5	O 7
9/29/26	vs BOS	W 9–0	W -1.5	O 6
9/25/26	vs BAL	W 6–3	W +1.5	O 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Tampa Bay Rays

Overall2–1–0W–L–TRun Line2–1–0W–L–PO/U2–1–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Run Line	Total
9/27/26	@ PHI	L 3–7	L +1.5	O 6.5
9/26/26	@ PHI	W 12–1	W +1.5	O 6.5
9/25/26	@ PHI	W 2–0	W +1.5	U 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Yankees and Rays
	Statistic
6.4 (7.8)	Hits	7.2 (8.7)

Starting pitcher context

Expected starters

YankeesGerrit ColeProbable

Player props1 of 4 markets

Earned Runs Allowed2.5Over+10947.8%Under-14559.2%

RaysDrew RasmussenProbable

Player props1 of 4 markets

Earned Runs Allowed1.5Over-11252.8%Under-11854.1%

Expected Starters

New York YankeesProjected

1Ben RiceDH
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+11247.2%Under-14959.8%
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2Cody BellingerLF
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+41219.5%Under-64086.5%
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3Spencer JonesRF
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51016.4%Under-83089.2%
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4George Lombard Jr.SS
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+59914.3%Under-100090.9%
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5Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51616.2%Under-84089.4%
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6Trent GrishamCF
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50216.6%Under-81089.0%
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7Austin WellsC
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+51216.3%Under-83089.2%
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8Ryan McMahon3B
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+71012.3%Under-124092.5%
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Tampa Bay RaysProjected

1Victor Mesa Jr.LF
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18765.2%
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2Yandy DiazDH
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Bases1.5Over+12544.4%Under-16762.5%
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3Jonathan Aranda1B
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+39420.2%Under-61085.9%
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4Junior Caminero3B
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Bases1.5Over-10350.7%Under-12956.3%
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5Liam HicksDH
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45618.0%Under-73088.0%
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6Richie Palacios2B
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+45518.0%Under-72087.8%
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7Chandler SimpsonLF
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+52516.0%Under-86089.6%
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8Cedric MullinsCF
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+50816.4%Under-82089.1%
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9Taylor WallsSS
Player props1 of 6 markets
Total Doubles Hit0.5Over+54415.5%Under-89089.9%
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Player availability

Injury report

New York Yankees

RFAaron JudgeCalf10-Day-IL
Judge's (calf) availability for the ALDS against the Rays "remains up in the air," Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Updated: Oct 2, 2026 at 1:54 PM EDT
SPClarke SchmidtBiceps15-Day-IL
Manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that Schmidt (biceps) will be shut down for the rest of the season, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
Updated: Sep 30, 2026 at 6:22 PM EDT
RPFernando CruzElbow60-Day-IL
The Yankees transferred Cruz (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
Updated: Sep 25, 2026 at 7:17 PM EDT

Tampa Bay Rays

RPEdwin UcetaShoulder60-Day-IL
Uceta (shoulder) is playing catch from 75 feet, per MLB.com.
Updated: Aug 14, 2026 at 10:52 PM EDT
LFGavin LuxShoulder60-Day-IL
Lux (shoulder) has resumed full baseball activity, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
Updated: Sep 11, 2026 at 5:41 PM EDT
LFJacob MeltonHamstring60-Day-IL
The Rays recalled Melton from Triple-A Durham and placed him on the 60-day injured list Tuesday due to a right hamstring strain.
Updated: Sep 15, 2026 at 2:08 PM EDT

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