CFB matchup

10/08/20267:00 PMWilliams Stadium - LynchburgLynchburg, VA

Sam Houston1 – 4vsLiberty5 – 1

Sharp side

🏠 Liberty -13.5

Model value

Team trendLiberty Flames: +3.69 units ATS streak

Spread bets on the Liberty Flames are on a 4-game win streak, returning a profit of 3.69 units when betting one unit per game.

Sharp total

↑ Over 52.5

Model value

Team trendLiberty Flames games: +1.64 units on Over in past year

7 of 12 games (58.3%) featuring the Liberty Flames have gone Over in the past year, returning a profit of 1.64 units when betting one unit per game.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Sam Houston Bearkats	16.1	7.1%
Liberty Flames	36.7	92.9%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
Sam Houston Bearkats	C-	D+	C-
Liberty Flames	C-	C	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

SHSU+410+13.5 (-110)

LIB-550-13.5 (-110)

Total 52.5Over -112Under -108

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineSpread

SHSU+425+13.5 (-110)

LIB-550-13.5 (-108)

Total 52.5Over -110Under -108

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineSpread

SHSU+390+13.0 (-107)

LIB-590-13.0 (-115)

Total 52.5Over -122Under +100

Caesars

TeamMoneylineSpread

SHSU+400+13.5 (-106)

LIB-560-13.5 (-114)

Total 52.5Over -114Under -107

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineSpread

SHSU+425+13.5 (-110)

LIB-550-13.5 (-110)

Total 53.0Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineSpread

SHSU+400+13.5 (-110)

LIB-550-13.5 (-110)

Total 52.5Over -110Under -110

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

SHSU+400+13.5 (-110)

LIB-600-13.5 (-110)

Total 53.5Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

SHSU+450+13.5 (-115)

LIB-700-13.5 (-105)

Total 53.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 10 games

Sam Houston Bearkats

Overall3–7–0W–L–TATS5–5–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
9/26/26	@ TTU	L 14–49	L +34.5	O 55.5
9/19/26	vs NICH	W 59–0	W -21	O 50.5
9/12/26	vs TLSA	L 17–23	W +12.5	U 51.5
9/5/26	@ TROY	L 21–24	W +15.5	U 52.5
11/29/25	vs FIU	L 16–56	L +10.5	O 50.5
11/22/25	@ MTSU	L 17–31	L +6.5	U 53.5
11/15/25	vs DEL	W 26–23	W +13.5	U 56.5
11/8/25	@ ORST	W 21–17	W +21.5	U 52.5
10/31/25	@ LT	L 14–55	L +16.5	O 48.5
10/15/25	vs UTEP	L 17–35	L +3.5	O 47.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Liberty Flames

Overall5–5–0W–L–TATS4–6–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
10/2/26	@ DEL	W 30–14	W -7	U 51.5
9/24/26	@ CCU	W 34–17	W -2.5	O 50.5
9/19/26	vs BALL	W 51–15	W -14.5	O 49.5
9/12/26	vs GWEB	W 24–23	L -28.5	U 55.5
9/5/26	@ JMU	L 13–20	L +6	U 50.5
11/29/25	vs KENN	L 42–48	L +2.5	O 55.5
11/22/25	@ LT	L 28–34	L -1.5	O 45.5
11/15/25	@ FIU	L 27–34	L -4.5	O 53.5
11/8/25	vs MOST	L 17–21	L -7.5	U 51.5
11/1/25	vs DEL	W 59–30	W -3.5	O 52.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Sam Houston and Liberty
	Statistic
333.5 (367.9)	Total Yards	443.7 (420.3)
210.9 (232.4)	Passing Yards	216.3 (209.3)
19.7 (19.6)	Pass Completions	14.5 (14.7)
35.9 (34.8)	Pass Attempts	24.9 (25.9)
122.5 (135.5)	Rushing Yards	227.4 (211.1)
29.8 (31.5)	Rushing Attempts	43.5 (43.4)
17.0 (18.2)	First Downs	22.7 (22.2)