CFB matchup

10/08/20267:00 PMHouchens Industries LT Smith StadiumBowling Green, KY

Missouri State1 – 4vsWestern Kentucky2 – 4

Sharp side

🏠 Western Kentucky +1.5

Model value

Team trendWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers: +2.36 units ATS in past year

Spread bets on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have won in 8 of 13 games (61.5%) in the past year, returning a profit of 2.36 units when betting one unit per game.

Sharp total

↓ Under 56.5

Model value

Team trendWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers games: +0.70 units on Under in past month

3 of 5 games (60.0%) featuring the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have gone Under in the past month, returning a profit of 0.70 units when betting one unit per game.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Missouri State Bears	26.7	42.0%
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	29.5	58.0%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
Missouri State Bears	C-	C	C-
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	C	D+	C-

Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

MOST-122-1.5 (-110)

WKU+102+1.5 (-110)

Total 56.5Over -110Under -110

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineSpread

MOST-120-1.5 (-110)

WKU+100+1.5 (-108)

Total 56.5Over -108Under -110

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineSpread

MOST-125-1.5 (-115)

WKU+102+1.5 (-107)

Total 56.5Over -109Under -114

Caesars

TeamMoneylineSpread

MOST-121-1.5 (-110)

WKU+103+1.5 (-110)

Total 56.5Over -109Under -110

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineSpread

MOST-125-2.0 (-110)

WKU+105+2.0 (-110)

Total 56.0Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineSpread

MOST-122-1.5 (-114)

WKU+102+1.5 (-106)

Total 56.5Over -105Under -115

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

MOST-125-1.5 (-115)

WKU+100+1.5 (-105)

Total 56.5Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

MOST-130-2.5 (+100)

WKU+110+2.5 (-120)

Total 56.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 10 games

Missouri State Bears

Overall4–6–0W–L–TATS5–5–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
9/26/26	@ SMU	L 24–34	W +30.5	U 60.5
9/19/26	vs MRSH	L 24–30	L +4	O 52.5
9/12/26	vs LIN	W 48–14	W -16.5	O 53.5
9/5/26	@ TA&M	L 0–50	L +38.5	U 53.5
12/18/25	vs ARST	L 28–34	L +1.5	O 55.5
11/29/25	vs LT	L 30–42	L -2.5	O 45.5
11/22/25	@ KENN	L 34–41	L +6.5	O 54.5
11/15/25	vs UTEP	W 38–24	W -7.5	O 48.5
11/8/25	@ LIB	W 21–17	W +7.5	U 51.5
10/29/25	vs FIU	W 28–21	W -3.5	U 50.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers

Overall4–6–0W–L–TATS6–4–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
10/1/26	@ NMSU	L 13–34	L +1.5	U 55.5
9/26/26	vs MERC	W 52–7	W -39.5	O 58.5
9/19/26	@ IU	L 0–38	W +44.5	U 59.5
9/12/26	@ UGA	L 20–70	L +40.5	O 55.5
9/5/26	@ NEV	L 14–49	L -1.5	O 51.5
12/23/25	vs USM	W 27–16	W +2.5	U 59.5
11/29/25	@ JXST	L 34–37	L -1.5	O 56.5
11/22/25	@ LSU	L 10–13	W +25.5	U 53.5
11/15/25	vs MTSU	W 42–26	W -13.5	O 51.5
11/1/25	vs NMSU	W 35–16	W -7.5	U 54.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Missouri State and Western Kentucky
	Statistic
386.0 (386.4)	Total Yards	417.5 (370.1)
263.8 (264.0)	Passing Yards	266.3 (238.8)
20.5 (20.5)	Pass Completions	23.7 (23.3)
31.5 (31.5)	Pass Attempts	36.5 (37.2)
122.2 (122.4)	Rushing Yards	151.2 (131.3)
33.3 (33.3)	Rushing Attempts	34.8 (33.6)
20.3 (20.3)	First Downs	21.3 (19.8)