CFB matchup

10/08/20267:30 PMAlamodomeSan Antonio, TX

South Florida4 – 2vsUTSA5 – 1

Sharp side

✈️ South Florida +5.5

Model value

Sharp total

↑ Over 49.5

Model value

Team trendUTSA Roadrunners games: +5.15 units on Over in past year

10 of 14 games (71.4%) featuring the UTSA Roadrunners have gone Over in the past year, returning a profit of 5.15 units when betting one unit per game.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
South Florida Bulls	29.8	49.4%
UTSA Roadrunners	30.0	50.6%

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
South Florida Bulls	B	C+	B-
UTSA Roadrunners	B-	C	C

Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

USF+190+5.5 (-110)

UTSA-230-5.5 (-110)

Total 49.5Over -112Under -108

BetMGM

TeamMoneylineSpread

USF+185+6.0 (-110)

UTSA-225-6.0 (-108)

Total 50.5Over -105Under -112

BetRivers

TeamMoneylineSpread

USF+163+4.5 (+100)

UTSA-205-4.5 (-122)

Total 48.5Over -122Under +100

Caesars

TeamMoneylineSpread

USF+189+5.5 (-106)

UTSA-230-5.5 (-114)

Total 50.5Over -106Under -114

Circa Sports

TeamMoneylineSpread

USF+195+5.5 (-110)

UTSA-225-5.5 (-110)

Total 50.0Over -110Under -110

FanDuel

TeamMoneylineSpread

USF+188+5.5 (-105)

UTSA-230-5.5 (-115)

Total 49.5Over -115Under -104

Hard Rock Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

USF+165+5.5 (-110)

UTSA-200-5.5 (-110)

Total 49.5Over -110Under -110

theScore Bet

TeamMoneylineSpread

USF+180+5.5 (-115)

UTSA-215-5.5 (-105)

Total 50.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 10 games

South Florida Bulls

Overall7–3–0W–L–TATS5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
10/3/26	vs TEM	L 13–17	L -5.5	U 50.5
9/26/26	@ BGSU	W 14–6	L -17.5	U 48.5
9/19/26	vs DSU	W 59–17	W -37.5	O 59.5
9/12/26	@ ARMY	W 28–24	W +3	O 45.5
9/5/26	vs FIU	W 19–9	L -14.5	U 53.5
12/17/25	vs ODU	L 10–24	L -4	U 52.5
11/29/25	vs RICE	W 52–3	W -28.5	U 57.5
11/22/25	@ UAB	W 48–18	W -22.5	U 68.5
11/15/25	@ NAVY	L 38–41	L -8.5	O 62.5
11/6/25	vs UTSA	W 55–23	W -13.5	O 66.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

UTSA Roadrunners

Overall7–3–0W–L–TATS6–4–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
10/3/26	@ RICE	W 16–14	L -11.5	U 56.5
9/26/26	vs CSU	W 59–45	L -14.5	O 56.5
9/19/26	@ TEX	L 6–30	W +29.5	U 58.5
9/12/26	@ TXST	W 31–26	W +1.5	U 65.5
9/5/26	vs RGV	W 45–16	W -28.5	O 59.5
12/26/25	vs FIU	W 57–20	W -7.5	O 63.5
11/29/25	vs ARMY	L 24–27	L -8.5	O 50.5
11/22/25	vs ECU	W 58–24	W +2.5	O 61.5
11/15/25	@ CLT	W 28–7	W -17.5	U 57.5
11/6/25	@ USF	L 23–55	L +13.5	O 66.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for South Florida and UTSA
	Statistic
405.2 (449.5)	Total Yards	389.1 (418.2)
229.8 (248.2)	Passing Yards	230.6 (248.8)
18.3 (18.9)	Pass Completions	22.2 (22.3)
28.3 (28.3)	Pass Attempts	32.9 (32.7)
175.4 (201.3)	Rushing Yards	158.5 (169.5)
37.5 (38.6)	Rushing Attempts	33.7 (34.5)
21.6 (23.4)	First Downs	20.8 (22.0)