NHL matchup
10/08/202610:00 PMT-Mobile ArenaLas Vegas, NV

Maple Leafs2 – 2 – 1vsGolden Knights4 – 1 – 0

Sharp side
✈️ Maple Leafs +142
Model value
Sharp total
↓ Under 6.5
Model value
Team trendToronto Maple Leafs games: +0.80 units on Under this season

3 of 5 games (60.0%) featuring the Toronto Maple Leafs have gone Under this season, returning a profit of 0.80 units when betting one unit per game.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Toronto Maple Leafs2.538.5%
Vegas Golden Knights3.361.5%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamSkatersGoalieOverall
Toronto Maple LeafsC+BB-
Vegas Golden KnightsB+B+B+
Featured analysis

Matchup preview

Editorial oil painting of T-Mobile Arena during a professional hockey night game in Las Vegas, Nevada.Maple Leafs vs. Golden Knights preview: Can Toronto avoid another chase?Toronto rallied from three goals down Tuesday, while Vegas built a commanding lead. Our projections show a modest shooting-volume gap despite the Golden Knights’ stronger team grades.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TOR+142+1.5 (-180)
VGK-170-1.5 (+150)
Total 6.5Over -125Under +105
BetMGM
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TOR+140+1.5 (-160)
VGK-170-1.5 (+135)
Total 6.5Over -130Under +105
BetRivers
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TOR+150+1.5 (-167)
VGK-180-1.5 (+132)
Total 6.5Over -125Under +102
Caesars
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TOR+142—
VGK-170—
Total —Over —Under —
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TOR+143+1.5 (-170)
VGK-160-1.5 (+150)
Total 6.5Over -125Under +105
FanDuel
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TOR+136+1.5 (-170)
VGK-164-1.5 (+140)
Total 6.5Over -124Under +102
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TOR+135+1.5 (-165)
VGK-160-1.5 (+130)
Total 6.5Over -120Under +100
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TOR+140+1.5 (-165)
VGK-165-1.5 (+140)
Total 6.5Over -120Under +100
Recent form

Last 10 games

Toronto Maple Leafs

Overall2–8–0W–L–TPuck Line2–8–0W–L–PO/U5–5–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultPuck LineTotal
10/6/26vs NSHW 5–4L -1.5O 5.5
10/3/26vs OTTL 2–3L -1.5U 6.5
9/30/26vs NYIW 2–1L -1.5U 5.5
9/29/26vs MTLL 2–3L -1.5U 6.5
4/15/26@ OTTL 1–3L +1.5U 6.5
4/13/26vs DALL 5–6W +1.5O 6.5
4/11/26vs FLAL 2–6L -1.5O 6.5
4/9/26@ NYIL 3–5L +1.5O 6.5
4/8/26vs WSHL 0–4L +1.5U 6.5
4/4/26@ LAL 6–7W +1.5O 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Vegas Golden Knights

Overall5–5–0W–L–TPuck Line5–5–0W–L–PO/U7–3–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultPuck LineTotal
10/6/26@ SEAW 6–2W -1.5O 6.5
10/4/26@ VANW 3–2L -1.5U 6.5
10/2/26vs ANAL 3–4L -1.5O 6.5
9/29/26vs CHIW 5–2W -1.5O 6.5
6/14/26vs CARL 0–3L +1.5U 5.5
6/11/26@ CARL 2–4L +1.5U 6.5
6/9/26vs CARL 3–5L +1.5O 5.5
6/6/26vs CARW 5–4W +1.5O 5.5
6/4/26@ CARL 3–4W +1.5O 5.5
6/2/26@ CARW 5–4W +1.5O 5.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Maple Leafs and Golden Knights
Statistic
26.2 (26.5)Shots28.6 (28.6)
22.7 (22.7)Hits23.7 (23.7)
15.2 (15.1)Blocked Shots14.9 (14.9)
30.5 (30.3)Faceoffs Won29.1 (29.3)
2.5 (2.5)Power Play Opportunities2.9 (2.9)
4.5 (4.6)Takeaways4.4 (4.4)
16.2 (16.3)Giveaways16.7 (16.6)
3.7 (3.7)Penalties3.3 (3.2)

Starting goalie context

Expected goalies

Maple LeafsSergei BobrovskyConfirmed
Player props1 market
Total Saves26.5Over-13056.5%Under-10551.2%
Golden KnightsAdin HillConfirmed
Player props1 market
Total Saves22.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Lineup context

Projected lines

Toronto Maple Leafs
First line
  • CAuston Matthews
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
    Total Points0.5Over-19566.1%Under+14540.8%
    Total Shots on Goal3.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
  • LWKirill Marchenko
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%
    Total Points0.5Over-15060.0%Under+11047.6%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+11546.5%Under-15060.0%
  • RWJack Roslovic
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+26027.8%Under-37078.7%
    Total Points0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19065.5%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
  • DJake McCabe
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+31024.4%Under-45081.8%
    Total Blocked Shots1.5Over-19065.5%Under+13542.6%
    Total Points0.5Over+26527.4%Under-38079.2%
  • DChris Tanev
    Player props1 market
    Total Blocked Shots2.5Over+12544.4%Under-17563.6%
Second line
  • CJohn Tavares
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
    Total Points0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-19065.5%Under+14041.7%
  • LWEaston Cowan
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+21032.3%Under-29074.4%
    Total Points0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16562.3%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%
  • RWWilliam Nylander
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
    Total Points0.5Over-18564.9%Under+13542.6%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
  • DMorgan Rielly
    Player props2 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+22530.8%Under-32076.2%
    Total Points0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24070.6%
  • DDarren Raddysh
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
    Total Points0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
Vegas Golden Knights
First line
  • CJack Eichel
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13043.5%
    Total Points1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-15560.8%Under+11546.5%
  • LWIvan Barbashev
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+17536.4%Under-23570.1%
    Total Points0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13557.4%
  • RWMark Stone
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Points0.5Over-23069.7%Under+16537.7%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-17563.6%Under+13043.5%
  • DBrayden McNabb
    Player props1 market
    Total Blocked Shots1.5Over-19566.1%Under+14041.7%
  • DShea Theodore
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+16537.7%Under-22569.2%
    Total Points0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15060.0%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10050.0%
Second line
  • CWilliam Karlsson
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+21531.7%Under-29574.7%
    Total Points0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-18564.9%Under+13542.6%
  • LWBrett Howden
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+24029.4%Under-33076.7%
    Total Points0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+11047.6%Under-15060.0%
  • RWMitch Marner
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12544.4%
    Total Points1.5Over+14041.7%Under-19566.1%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+12544.4%Under-16562.3%
  • DParker Wotherspoon
  • DRasmus Andersson
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+18035.7%Under-25071.4%
    Total Points0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18564.9%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%


Get the complete matchup

Unlock every rated bet and the complete matchup intelligence with Premium.

Start 7-day free trial


Up next

More NHL matchups

Welcome back