NHL matchup
10/17/20267:00 PMScotiabank ArenaToronto, ON

Islanders4 – 3 – 1vsMaple Leafs4 – 4 – 2

Sharp side
✈️ Islanders +114
Model value
Team trendToronto Maple Leafs opponents: +9.26 units outright in past year

Outright bets against the Toronto Maple Leafs have won in 53 of 86 games (61.6%) in the past year, returning a profit of 9.26 units when betting one unit per game.

Sharp total
↓ Under 6.5
Model value
Team trendNew York Islanders games: +5.76 units on Under in past year

47 of 85 games (55.3%) featuring the New York Islanders have gone Under in the past year, returning a profit of 5.76 units when betting one unit per game.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
New York Islanders2.746.5%
Toronto Maple Leafs3.053.5%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamSkatersGoalieOverall
New York IslandersD+BC
Toronto Maple LeafsB-B-B-
Featured analysis

Matchup preview

Editorial oil painting of Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, with anonymous painterly figures and unlettered surfaces.Islanders vs. Maple Leafs: Can Toronto turn scoring into a win?Toronto has scored freely without consistently winning. The Islanders bring a different challenge, especially if Ilya Sorokin carries his recent form into Saturday's matchup.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
NYI+114+1.5 (-218)
TOR-135-1.5 (+180)
Total 6.5Over +105Under -125
BetMGM
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
NYI+105+1.5 (-220)
TOR-130-1.5 (+180)
Total 6.5Over +100Under -120
BetRivers
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
NYI+120+1.5 (-220)
TOR-143-1.5 (+170)
Total 6.5Over +105Under -130
Caesars
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
NYI+110—
TOR-130—
Total —Over —Under —
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
NYI+107+1.5 (-225)
TOR-119-1.5 (+195)
Total 6.0Over -120Under +100
FanDuel
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
NYI+105+1.5 (-235)
TOR-126-1.5 (+186)
Total 6.0Over -124Under +102
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
NYI+110+1.5 (-230)
TOR-130-1.5 (+175)
Total 6.5Over +105Under -130
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
NYI+110+1.5 (-215)
TOR-130-1.5 (+175)
Total 6.5Over +100Under -120
Recent form

Last 10 games

New York Islanders

Overall3–7–0W–L–TPuck Line4–6–0W–L–PO/U3–7–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultPuck LineTotal
10/15/26@ OTTL 1–2W +1.5U 5.5
10/13/26vs VANW 3–2L -1.5U 5.5
10/10/26vs TBL 3–5L +1.5O 5.5
10/8/26vs CHIW 4–1W -1.5U 5.5
10/6/26@ NYRL 2–5L +1.5O 5.5
10/3/26vs NJW 6–0W +1.5O 5.5
9/30/26@ TORL 1–2W +1.5U 5.5
4/14/26vs CARL 1–2L -1.5U 6.5
4/12/26vs MTLL 1–4L -1.5U 6.5
4/11/26vs OTTL 0–3L +1.5U 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Overall3–7–0W–L–TPuck Line4–6–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultPuck LineTotal
10/15/26vs BUFL 4–5L -1.5O 6.5
10/13/26@ UTAHL 4–5W +1.5O 6.5
10/10/26@ COLW 6–3W +1.5O 6.5
10/8/26@ VGKL 3–4W +1.5O 6.5
10/6/26vs NSHW 5–4L -1.5O 5.5
10/3/26vs OTTL 2–3L -1.5U 6.5
9/30/26vs NYIW 2–1L -1.5U 5.5
9/29/26vs MTLL 2–3L -1.5U 6.5
4/15/26@ OTTL 1–3L +1.5U 6.5
4/13/26vs DALL 5–6W +1.5O 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Islanders and Maple Leafs
Statistic
27.7 (27.7)Shots26.3 (26.4)
19.7 (19.7)Hits22.4 (22.4)
14.3 (14.4)Blocked Shots15.7 (15.1)
28.9 (28.8)Faceoffs Won30.9 (30.4)
2.9 (2.9)Power Play Opportunities2.5 (2.5)
4.5 (4.5)Takeaways4.7 (4.7)
14.6 (14.6)Giveaways16.0 (16.3)
3.4 (3.3)Penalties3.8 (3.7)

Starting goalie context

Expected goalies

IslandersIlya SorokinConfirmed
Player props1 market
Total Saves25.5Over-12555.6%Under-11052.4%
Maple LeafsSergei BobrovskyConfirmed
Player props1 market
Total Saves25.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
Lineup context

Projected lines

New York Islanders
First line
  • CBo Horvat
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21067.7%
    Total Points0.5Over-15560.8%Under+11546.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-16562.3%Under+12544.4%
  • LWMatias Maccelli
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+16537.7%Under-23069.7%
    Total Points0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13056.5%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13557.4%
  • RWSimon Holmstrom
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+24529.0%Under-34077.3%
    Total Points0.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+11546.5%Under-16061.5%
  • DLogan Stanley
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+30025.0%Under-45081.8%
    Total Points0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34077.3%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13557.4%
  • DMatthew Schaefer
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-10551.2%Under-13056.5%
    Total Points0.5Over-16061.5%Under+12045.5%
    Total Shots on Goal3.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
Second line
  • CCalum Ritchie
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+26527.4%Under-37078.7%
    Total Points0.5Over+15040.0%Under-21067.7%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
  • LWBrayden Schenn
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23570.1%
    Total Points0.5Over-11052.4%Under-12555.6%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-13557.4%Under+10050.0%
  • DAdam Pelech
    Player props2 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+38020.8%Under-57585.2%
    Total Points0.5Over+31024.4%Under-45081.8%
  • DRyan Pulock
Toronto Maple Leafs
First line
  • CAuston Matthews
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+11047.6%Under-14559.2%
    Total Points0.5Over-23069.7%Under+16537.7%
    Total Shots on Goal3.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
  • LWJack Roslovic
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+21032.3%Under-29074.4%
    Total Points0.5Over+10050.0%Under-13557.4%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+12544.4%Under-17063.0%
  • RWWilliam Nylander
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
    Total Points0.5Over-23069.7%Under+17037.0%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
  • DJake McCabe
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+24529.0%Under-34077.3%
    Total Blocked Shots2.5Over+12045.5%Under-16562.3%
    Total Points0.5Over+20532.8%Under-28574.0%
  • DDarren Raddysh
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
    Total Points0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Second line
  • CNick Paul
    Player props2 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+24529.0%Under-35077.8%
    Total Points0.5Over+14540.8%Under-19566.1%
  • LWEaston Cowan
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+24029.4%Under-34077.3%
    Total Points0.5Over+12544.4%Under-16562.3%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
  • RWKirill Marchenko
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+12544.4%Under-17063.0%
    Total Points0.5Over-18064.3%Under+13043.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-14058.3%Under+10050.0%
  • DMorgan Rielly
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+22031.3%Under-31075.6%
    Total Points0.5Over+17037.0%Under-23570.1%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%
  • DTroy Stecher
    Player props1 market
    Total Blocked Shots1.5Over+10050.0%Under-14058.3%


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