NHL matchup
10/23/20269:00 PMBall ArenaDenver, CO

Lightning8 – 3 – 1vsAvalanche7 – 5 – 1

Sharp side
🏠 Avalanche -122
Model value
Model trendTampa Bay Lightning games: +5.86 units on model side bets during the current streak

Model side bets in games featuring Tampa Bay Lightning are on a 5-bet win streak, for an estimated profit of 5.86 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total
↓ Under 6.5
Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Projected outcome: model scores and win probabilities
Team
Tampa Bay Lightning2.641.2%
Colorado Avalanche3.258.8%
Matchup intelligence

Team grades

TeamSkatersGoalieOverall
Tampa Bay LightningB+A-A-
Colorado AvalancheA+AA+
More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Ball Arena in Denver, with abstracted figures and unbranded surfaces.Lightning vs. Avalanche: Colorado’s attack meets Tampa Bay’s momentumColorado is a modest home favorite, but Tampa Bay arrives with three straight wins. Our shooting projections and the goalies’ recent results help explain the tension.Read analysis
Sportsbook context

Game lines

Best price Highlighted offers compare the same selection and line across the books shown.— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TB+102+1.5 (-238)
COL-122-1.5 (+195)
Total 6.5Over -102Under -118
BetMGM
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TB+100+1.5 (-235)
COL-120-1.5 (+195)
Total 6.5Over +100Under -120
BetRivers
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TB+104+1.5 (-265)
COL-122-1.5 (+200)
Total 6.5Over +100Under -124
Caesars
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TB+108+1.5 (-230)
COL-128-1.5 (+185)
Total 6.5Over -108Under -118
Circa Sports
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TB+108+1.5 (-225)
COL-120-1.5 (+195)
Total 6.5Over -105Under -115
FanDuel
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TB+100+1.5 (-245)
COL-120-1.5 (+194)
Total 6.5Over +100Under -122
Hard Rock Bet
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TB+100+1.5 (-250)
COL-120-1.5 (+180)
Total 6.5Over +100Under -120
Kalshi
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TB+108—
COL-113—
Total —Over —Under —
theScore Bet
TeamMoneylinePuck Line
TB+105+1.5 (-235)
COL-125-1.5 (+190)
Total 6.5Over +100Under -120
Recent form

Last 10 games

Tampa Bay Lightning

Overall7–3–0W–L–TPuck Line5–5–0W–L–PO/U4–6–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultPuck LineTotal
10/20/26@ VGKW 6–2W +1.5O 6.5
10/17/26vs VANW 4–2W -1.5U 6.5
10/15/26vs SEAW 4–3L -1.5O 6.5
10/13/26@ NYRL 1–4L -1.5U 5.5
10/10/26@ NYIW 5–3W -1.5O 5.5
10/8/26vs MINW 3–2L -1.5U 6.5
10/5/26vs PHIW 4–1W -1.5U 5.5
10/3/26vs WSHW 3–1W -1.5U 6.5
10/1/26@ NYRL 1–5L -1.5O 5.5
5/3/26vs MTLL 1–2L -1.5U 5.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Colorado Avalanche

Overall5–5–0W–L–TPuck Line6–4–0W–L–PO/U6–4–0O–U–P
DateOpponentResultPuck LineTotal
10/20/26@ NJL 3–4W +1.5O 6.5
10/19/26@ PHIL 2–3L -1.5U 6.5
10/16/26vs PITW 5–2W -1.5O 6.5
10/14/26vs DALL 2–3L -1.5U 5.5
10/13/26@ DALW 3–2W +1.5U 5.5
10/10/26vs TORL 3–6L -1.5O 6.5
10/8/26@ CGYW 7–3W -1.5O 6.5
10/7/26@ WPGL 2–3L -1.5U 6.5
10/3/26vs STLW 6–1W -1.5O 6.5
9/30/26vs LAW 8–4W -1.5O 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Lightning and Avalanche
Statistic
28.7 (28.6)Shots32.7 (33.2)
21.9 (21.0)Hits18.4 (17.9)
12.1 (12.4)Blocked Shots12.9 (12.9)
27.0 (26.3)Faceoffs Won29.8 (29.8)
3.2 (3.2)Power Play Opportunities2.9 (3.1)
4.2 (4.2)Takeaways4.5 (4.5)
14.8 (14.8)Giveaways15.8 (15.8)
5.2 (5.1)Penalties3.4 (3.4)

Starting goalie context

Expected goalies

LightningAndrei VasilevskiyConfirmed
Player props1 market
Total Saves27.5Over-11553.5%Under-11553.5%
AvalancheMackenzie BlackwoodConfirmed
Player props1 market
Total Saves23.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
Lineup context

Projected lines

Tampa Bay Lightning
First line
  • CAnthony Cirelli
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+24529.0%Under-34077.3%
    Total Points0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16562.3%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+11546.5%Under-15560.8%
  • LWBrandon Hagel
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+13043.5%Under-17563.6%
    Total Points0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13043.5%
    Total Shots on Goal3.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
  • RWNikita Kucherov
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-17063.0%Under+12544.4%
    Total Points1.5Over+14041.7%Under-18564.9%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-17563.6%Under+13043.5%
  • DJohn Carlson
    Player props4 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24070.6%
    Total Blocked Shots1.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
    Total Points0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
  • DJ.J. Moser
Second line
  • CBrayden Point
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+14540.8%Under-20066.7%
    Total Points0.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-17563.6%Under+13043.5%
  • LWGage Goncalves
    Player props2 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+24029.4%Under-33076.7%
    Total Points0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18564.9%
  • RWJake Guentzel
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+12045.5%Under-16061.5%
    Total Points0.5Over-17563.6%Under+13043.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-10551.2%Under-13056.5%
  • DRyan McDonagh
  • DErik Cernak
Colorado Avalanche
First line
  • CNathan MacKinnon
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-17563.6%Under+12544.4%
    Total Points1.5Over+11047.6%Under-15060.0%
    Total Shots on Goal3.5Over-13056.5%Under-10551.2%
  • LWArtturi Lehkonen
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+24529.0%Under-34077.3%
    Total Points0.5Over+10050.0%Under-14058.3%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-15560.8%Under+11546.5%
  • RWMartin Necas
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+11047.6%Under-15060.0%
    Total Points0.5Over-18064.3%Under+13043.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+13542.6%Under-18564.9%
  • DDevon Toews
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+17536.4%Under-24070.6%
    Total Points0.5Over+14041.7%Under-19065.5%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over+10548.8%Under-14559.2%
  • DCale Makar
    Player props4 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over-13557.4%Under+10050.0%
    Total Blocked Shots1.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
    Total Points0.5Over-20066.7%Under+15040.0%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
Second line
  • CBrock Nelson
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+19533.9%Under-27073.0%
    Total Points0.5Over+10548.8%Under-14058.3%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-14559.2%Under+10548.8%
  • LWGabriel Landeskog
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+25028.6%Under-35077.8%
    Total Points0.5Over+13542.6%Under-18564.9%
    Total Shots on Goal1.5Over-19065.5%Under+14041.7%
  • RWNazem Kadri
    Player props3 markets
    Total Assists0.5Over+15539.2%Under-21568.3%
    Total Points0.5Over-12054.5%Under-11553.5%
    Total Shots on Goal2.5Over-11553.5%Under-12054.5%
  • DBrett Kulak
  • DSam Malinski


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