NBA matchup

11/05/202610:00 PMChase CenterSan Francisco, CA

Heat3 – 5vsWarriors5 – 3

Sharp side

Model value

Model trendMiami Heat games: +1.47 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring Miami Heat went 5–3 (62.5%) this season, for an estimated profit of 1.47 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total

Unlock pick

Model value

Model trendMiami Heat games: +1.56 units on model total bets this season

Model total bets in games featuring Miami Heat went 5–3 (62.5%) this season, for an estimated profit of 1.56 units when staking one unit per bet.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
Miami Heat	A-	C	B
Golden State Warriors	B	B-	B

More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Chase Center in San Francisco, with anonymous figures and unmarked surfaces.

Heat vs. Warriors preview: Can Golden State make its lead last?Golden State has won five straight, but Miami brings dangerous scoring talent after an overtime escape. The spread asks more of the Warriors than another close win.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

MIA+228+7.5 (-114)

GS-279-7.5 (-106)

Total 233.5Over -113Under -107

Recent form

Last 3 games

Miami Heat

Overall2–1–0W–L–TATS1–2–0W–L–PO/U2–1–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
11/4/26	@ LAC	W 117–116	L -6.5	U 233.5
11/2/26	@ LAL	L 117–138	L +1.5	O 237.5
10/30/26	vs IND	W 145–125	W -8.5	O 236.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Golden State Warriors

Overall3–0–0W–L–TATS3–0–0W–L–PO/U2–1–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
11/2/26	vs PHX	W 116–113	W -2.5	O 227.5
11/1/26	vs LAC	W 124–112	W -1.5	O 220.5
10/30/26	vs LAL	W 112–95	W +2.5	U 234.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Heat and Warriors
	Statistic
44.0 (43.5)	Field Goals Made	42.8 (40.9)

Lineup context

Projected Lineups

Miami Heat

Expected Starters

PGDavion Mitchell
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-11052.4%Under-12054.5%
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SGKlay Thompson
Player props1 of 5 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-16862.7%Under+12744.1%
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SFAndrew Wiggins
Player props1 of 5 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-11453.3%Under-11653.7%
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PFGiannis Antetokounmpo
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Assists6.5Over+11546.5%Under-15160.2%
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CBam Adebayo
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+16537.7%Under-22068.8%
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Relevant Bench

FPelle Larsson
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Assists3.5Over-14358.8%Under+10947.8%
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Golden State Warriors

Expected Starters

PGStephen Curry
Player props1 of 9 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals4.5Over+12145.2%Under-16061.5%
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SGBrandin Podziemski
Player props1 of 9 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over+12344.8%Under-16362.0%
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SFYaxel Lendeborg
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-19466.0%Under+14640.7%
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PFGui SantosOut
Santos (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Heat.
Updated: Nov 4, 2026 at 7:52 PM EST
CDraymond Green
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Assists6.5Over-10350.7%Under-12856.1%
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Relevant Bench

GDe'Anthony Melton
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+10050.0%Under-13156.7%
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FGeorges Niang
Player props1 of 4 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+12344.8%Under-16261.8%
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GWill Richard
Player props1 of 4 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+16138.3%Under-21468.2%
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Player availability

Injury report

Miami Heat

No current injuries reported

Golden State Warriors

FGui SantosKneeOut
Santos (knee) has been ruled out for Thursday's game against the Heat.
Updated: Nov 4, 2026 at 7:52 PM EST
FJimmy Butler IIIKneeOut
Butler (knee) could return sometime between January and February as he continues recovering from a torn right ACL, Anthony Slater of ESPN reports.
Updated: Oct 16, 2026 at 12:11 PM EDT
CKristaps PorzingisIllnessOut
The Warriors have stopped issuing salary payments to Porzingis, who remains away from the team and is considering retirement, Anthony Slater and Shams Charania of ESPN reported Wednesday.
Updated: Nov 4, 2026 at 12:00 PM EST

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