NBA matchup

11/08/20269:00 PMGolden 1 CenterSacramento, CA

Heat3 – 6vsKings1 – 8

Sharp side

Model value

Model trendMiami Heat games: +0.47 units on model side bets this season

Model side bets in games featuring Miami Heat went 5–4 (55.6%) this season, for an estimated profit of 0.47 units when staking one unit per bet.

Sharp total

Unlock pick

Model value

Model trendSacramento Kings games: +2.43 units on model total bets this season

Model total bets in games featuring Sacramento Kings went 6–3 (66.7%) this season, for an estimated profit of 2.43 units when staking one unit per bet.

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Offense	Defense	Overall
Miami Heat	B+	C-	B-
Sacramento Kings	C+	D+	C

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More for this matchup

Matchup articles

Editorial oil painting of Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, with abstracted signage and anonymous figures.

Heat vs. Kings: Miami’s offensive opportunity needs some stopsMiami's stronger attack meets Sacramento's struggling defense, but the Heat's own points allowed make sustained control the central question.Read analysis

Heat Parlay Picks vs. Kings: Side & Support Parlay PlaysAdebayo combined production and rebounds from Antetokounmpo and Sabonis offer three contributions to consider alongside a Miami win, with DraftKings odds.Read analysis

Kings Parlay Picks vs. Heat: Side & Support Parlay PlaysLaVine threes, Mitchell points plus assists and an Adebayo combined-stat under offer three options around a Sacramento upset, with DraftKings odds.Read analysis

Sportsbook context

Game lines

— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylineSpread

MIA-446-10.5 (-108)

SAC+346+10.5 (-112)

Total 238.5Over -105Under -115

Recent form

Last 3 games

Miami Heat

Overall1–2–0W–L–TATS0–3–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
11/5/26	@ GS	L 100–120	L +3.5	U 236.5
11/4/26	@ LAC	W 117–116	L -6.5	U 233.5
11/2/26	@ LAL	L 117–138	L +1.5	O 237.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Sacramento Kings

Overall1–2–0W–L–TATS2–1–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Spread	Total
11/6/26	vs SA	L 109–124	W +17.5	O 231.5
11/4/26	vs LAL	L 103–116	L +12.5	U 233.5
11/2/26	@ DAL	W 115–100	W +7.5	U 232.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Heat and Kings
	Statistic
45.8 (43.4)	Field Goals Made	44.1 (41.3)

Lineup context

Projected Lineups

Miami Heat

Expected Starters

PGDavion Mitchell
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-13657.6%Under+10349.3%
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SGKlay Thompson
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals3.5Over+13243.1%Under-17563.6%
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SFAndrew Wiggins
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+10748.3%Under-14158.5%
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PFGiannis Antetokounmpo
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Assists5.5Over-13757.8%Under+10449.0%
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CBam Adebayo
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over-21668.4%Under+16238.2%
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Relevant Bench

FBobby Portis
Player props1 of 4 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+17336.6%Under-23269.9%
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FPelle Larsson
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals0.5Over-23870.4%Under+17836.0%
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Sacramento Kings

Expected Starters

PGDarius Acuff Jr.
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-15761.1%Under+11945.7%
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SGZach LaVine
Player props1 of 8 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals2.5Over-11252.8%Under-11753.9%
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SFDe'Andre Hunter
Player props1 of 4 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over-16562.3%Under+12544.4%
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PFKeegan MurrayOut
Murray (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Heat.
Updated: Nov 7, 2026 at 8:30 PM EST
Player props1 of 4 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+12644.2%Under-16662.4%
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CDomantas Sabonis
Player props1 of 7 markets
Total Assists5.5Over-12856.1%Under-10350.7%
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Relevant Bench

GMalik Monk
Player props1 of 4 markets
Total 3-Point Field Goals1.5Over+10648.5%Under-13958.2%
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FPrecious Achiuwa
Player props1 of 3 markets
Total Points8.5Over-10851.9%Under-11854.1%
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Player availability

Injury report

Miami Heat

No current injuries reported

Sacramento Kings

GBen SimmonsAchillesOut
Simmons underwent successful surgery Tuesday to repair a torn right Achilles tendon, James Ham of ESPN 1320 Sacramento reports.
Updated: Oct 21, 2026 at 12:22 AM EDT
FKeegan MurrayAnkleOut
Murray (ankle) is questionable for Sunday's game against the Heat.
Updated: Nov 7, 2026 at 8:30 PM EST
CMaxime RaynaudKneeOut
Raynaud (knee) is progressing in his rehabilitation and will be re-evaluated in approximately two weeks, Brenden Nunes of KHTK Sactown Sports 1140 reports.
Updated: Oct 26, 2026 at 6:07 PM EDT