Lightning11 – 4 – 2vsSabres8 – 6 – 3

Sharp side

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Model value

Sharp total

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Model value

Model forecast

Projected outcome

Matchup intelligence

Team grades

Team	Skaters	Goalie	Overall
Tampa Bay Lightning	A-	A-	A-
Buffalo Sabres	B	C+	B-

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Sportsbook context

Game lines

— No usable price supplied by that book.

DraftKings

TeamMoneylinePuck Line

TB-125-1.5 (+190)

BUF+105+1.5 (-230)

Total 6.5Over -115Under -105

Recent form

Last 3 games

Tampa Bay Lightning

Overall2–1–0W–L–TPuck Line1–2–0W–L–PO/U2–1–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Puck Line	Total
11/8/26	@ WPG	L 3–4	L -1.5	O 6.5
11/7/26	@ MIN	W 4–3	L -1.5	O 6.5
11/5/26	vs CHI	W 4–1	W -1.5	U 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Buffalo Sabres

Overall1–2–0W–L–TPuck Line1–2–0W–L–PO/U1–2–0O–U–P

Date	Opponent	Result	Puck Line	Total
11/8/26	vs VGK	L 1–4	L +1.5	U 6.5
11/6/26	vs CBJ	W 5–2	W -1.5	O 6.5
11/4/26	vs OTT	L 1–2	L -1.5	U 6.5

W win · L loss · T tie · P push · O over · U under · — unavailable.

Team comparison

Projected team stats

Parenthetical values show each team’s average over the last 365 days.

Projected team statistics for Lightning and Sabres
	Statistic
28.8 (28.7)	Shots	28.2 (28.4)

Starting goalie context

Expected goalies

LightningAndrei VasilevskiyExpected

SabresUkko-Pekka LuukkonenExpected

Lineup context

Projected lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

First line

CAnthony Cirelli
LWJake Guentzel
RWNikita Kucherov
DJohn Carlson

Buffalo Sabres

First line

CJosh Norris
LWPeyton Krebs
RWTage Thompson
DRasmus Dahlin
DMattias Samuelsson

Player availability

Injury report

Tampa Bay Lightning

CBrayden PointUndisclosedInjured Reserve

Buffalo Sabres

CKonsta HeleniusUpper BodyOut
Helenius (upper body) is week-to-week, according to Matthew Fairburn of The Athletic on Monday.
Updated: Nov 2, 2026 at 12:29 PM EST
GAlex LyonShoulderInjured Reserve
Lyon (shoulder) will travel with the Sabres during the team's upcoming road trip, per Heather Engel of NHL.com.
Updated: Nov 10, 2026 at 12:54 PM EST
RWJustin DanforthUpper BodyInjured Reserve
Danforth (upper body) was placed on injured reserve Thursday, per the NHL media site.
Updated: Oct 29, 2026 at 6:06 PM EDT