Atlanta’s two wins this season came with 194 and 145 rushing yards from Bijan Robinson. Michael Penix Jr. threw 25 and 20 passes in those games. If you’re backing the Falcons against San Francisco, that balance is worth a closer look.
Our Falcons parlay picks follow those performances into Robinson’s rushing line and Penix’s passing-attempt under. McCaffrey’s receiving yards provide an option from the other side, using the 49ers losses he played in over the past year.
Side & Support puts the player choices around the outcome you have in mind. Here, the recent Atlanta wins are useful, but there are only two with Penix in this window—and unbeaten San Francisco hasn’t supplied a losing-game comparison this season.
Three props to consider with a Falcons win
The records cover each player’s appearances with his current team over the past year, including playoffs.
| Player & prop | Odds | When ATL wins / SF loses | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson 70+ rushing yards |
−269 | 85.7% 6 of 7 Falcons wins |
76.5% 13 of 17 games |
| Michael Penix Jr. Under 31.5 passing attempts |
−124 | 100.0% 2 of 2 Falcons wins |
57.1% 4 of 7 games |
| Christian McCaffrey 30+ receiving yards |
−294 | 100.0% 4 of 4 49ers losses |
66.7% 12 of 18 games |
Bijan Robinson: 70+ rushing yards
Robinson’s 70+ rushing yards line is −269. He has reached it in six of seven Falcons wins over the past year and 13 of 17 appearances overall.
Both victories this season cleared it comfortably, at 194 and 145 yards. That is encouraging recent evidence for an Atlanta-win view, although you’re only asking for 70 today, not a repeat of either huge performance.
The winning miss was a 33-yard game in January. His latest outing was a 61-yard loss to Chicago, and his rushing totals haven’t always matched how heavily you might expect Atlanta to lean on him.
Brian Robinson Jr. is out, leaving a different backfield rotation. That makes the workload worth following, rather than assuming an automatic increase for Bijan.
Michael Penix Jr.: under 31.5 passing attempts
Penix’s under 31.5 passing attempts is −124. It has hit in both Falcons wins he played in over the past year, compared with four of seven appearances overall.
This is the thinnest sample in the article: two wins, both this season. He threw 25 passes against Green Bay and 20 against New Orleans. The next two games, both losses, brought 32 and 33 attempts.
The recent contrast is easy to see, but it comes from four starts. Penix returned to the starting job in September, so the longer window contains relatively little action under the current setup.
Robinson’s rushing yards and Penix’s passing volume describe related parts of Atlanta’s offense. Consider that overlap and the sportsbook’s actual price if you pair them.
Christian McCaffrey: 30+ receiving yards
McCaffrey’s 30+ receiving yards line is −294. He reached it in all four San Francisco losses he played in over the past year, compared with 12 of 18 appearances overall.
All four losses came last season. The 49ers are 6–0 in 2026, so there isn’t a current-season losing game to confirm that pattern. Across their six wins this year, McCaffrey has reached 30 receiving yards three times.
His latest game supplied the strongest recent receiving involvement: nine catches for 53 yards against Washington. Earlier totals of 18 and 15 yards show the quieter side of that role too.
San Francisco is without Evans and Samuel, with Kirk returning. There is plenty to consider about how the passing work will be shared, but those absences don’t by themselves guarantee McCaffrey’s receiving total.
Falcons parlay picks: choosing your support
Robinson brings the broadest winning record, Penix supplies the lighter-priced volume under, and McCaffrey offers a receiving route even if San Francisco loses. The last two come from especially small conditional samples.
If the Atlanta running-game view is your starting point, weigh Robinson and Penix together before deciding whether McCaffrey’s older losing-game record adds enough. There’s room to use fewer options; a longer ticket isn’t the goal.
Check the final active list, exact lines and your sportsbook’s SGP price before choosing your support. These individual DraftKings prices are snapshots and can change.
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