The Flyers’ first shot on goal in the third period Monday was an empty-netter. Travis Sanheim sealed a 3–1 win in Vancouver with less than a minute left, after the Canucks had cut the lead to one and hit the crossbar on a power play. That was enough with a lead to protect. If Edmonton scores first Wednesday, Philadelphia may need to find offense while spending much of the night trying to get the puck out of its own zone.
Why the first goal matters in Edmonton
DraftKings made Edmonton a −205 moneyline favorite in the pregame snapshot. The gap in our team grades is on offense: Edmonton gets an A-minus and Philadelphia a D-minus, while both defenses get a B-minus. In Monday’s 3–1 win over the Rangers, Connor McDavid turned a goalie giveaway into the opening goal and Leon Draisaitl scored twice. Edmonton is 11–0–2 when scoring first this season.
The Rangers still got within one on a shorthanded breakaway and stayed there until Draisaitl’s empty-netter. Philadelphia gave itself that same kind of breathing room in Vancouver when Michael Bunting and Travis Konecny scored before the third. Against Edmonton, a clean exit that turns into a shift in the Oilers’ end buys the Flyers time to change lines and gives them another chance to score. A clear that comes right back leaves them waiting for another break.
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Who does the scoring at 6.5?
Philadelphia scored three or fewer in eight of its last 10 games. Five of those 10 still finished above Wednesday’s total of 6.5, and in four of those five the other team scored at least four. Edmonton’s last three games show why a big night from the favorite only gets you partway there: it scored four in a 4–2 win over Vancouver and four in a 5–4 loss to Anaheim, with a 3–1 win over the Rangers most recently.
Neither of the listed goalies was confirmed at the time of writing. Devon Levi stopped 28 of 29 against the Rangers and 21 of 23 against Vancouver; Dan Vladar allowed at least three in four of his last five appearances for Philadelphia. The thing to watch is what the Flyers do after they get out of their zone. If they can build a second chance after the first rush, they can contribute to the total even if Edmonton leads. If their shifts end at center ice, the Oilers may have to supply most of the scoring themselves.
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