Philadelphia’s search for its first win runs into a frustrating question: where will the goals come from? The Flyers haven’t scored more than twice in any of their eight games, giving Detroit an opening. But the Red Wings are only 1-3-2 themselves. This matchup is less about trusting an established favorite than deciding whether Detroit has enough going for it to capitalize on Philadelphia’s biggest weakness.
A scoring drought meets an encouraging goalie sample
The Flyers showed some fight Tuesday, rallying from two goals down before losing 3-2 to Seattle in a shootout. Christian Dvorak and Trevor Zegras scored, while Dan Vladar made 29 saves. Still, Philadelphia has managed just 10 goals through eight games. The comeback was encouraging; the broader scoring problem remains.
Detroit goalie Daniil Tarasov brings a promising, if brief, run into this matchup. He stopped all 30 shots he faced against Montreal on Saturday and has allowed one goal on 39 shots across his two appearances this season. One of those outings was in relief, so this is an encouraging start rather than a long track record. Against a Philadelphia team struggling to produce even a third goal, though, it’s a meaningful part of Detroit’s case.
The Flyers will also be without defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen. Charlie O’Connor of PHLY Sports reports that Ristolainen, who has an upper-body injury, won’t travel for Thursday’s game.
Detroit’s price still asks for improvement
The current DraftKings moneyline makes Detroit a -142 favorite, with Philadelphia at +120. The Red Wings have the stronger recent scoring example: Alex DeBrincat scored twice as they fell 5-4 to New Jersey in overtime Tuesday. But that game also exposed their uneven play. Detroit was outshot 16-0 midway through the first period before working its way back into the contest.
Our shot projections give Detroit a modest volume advantage, at roughly 29 shots on goal to Philadelphia’s 25. That supports a plausible path for the favorite: put more pucks on net while making the Flyers work to end their scoring drought. It doesn’t erase Detroit’s five losses in six games, and the quality of those opportunities remains an important uncertainty.
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What matters around a 5.5-goal total
Philadelphia’s scoring struggles make the 5.5 total worth a closer look. Six of its eight games this season have gone Under, producing a historical profit of 4.14 units from flat one-unit Under bets. Tarasov’s early results fit that lower-scoring picture, although those past bets were settled at their own prices and totals.
The counterweight is on the other side of the matchup. Detroit just scored four goals, and Vladar has an .875 save percentage across four appearances this season. If he starts for Philadelphia, Tuesday’s 29 saves on 31 shots offer a much better recent example than that overall sample. At 5.5, the Flyers’ scoring drought is only part of the story: Detroit’s ability to exploit Philadelphia’s goaltending could push scoring higher even if the Flyers remain limited.
The matchup’s clearest pressure point
Detroit has a credible route to justifying its favorite status: a modest projected shot advantage, DeBrincat coming off a two-goal game and Tarasov facing a team that hasn’t found consistent scoring. The main hesitation is Detroit’s own uneven play, especially the slow start against New Jersey. The favorite’s case is stronger if it can build that shooting edge without another prolonged stretch on its heels; Tarasov’s small sample alone isn’t enough to carry the argument. For Philadelphia, breaking its two-goal ceiling would be a more meaningful sign of progress than another close loss—and would challenge a major reason for the lower-scoring outlook.
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