New Orleans has allowed at least 138 points in three straight games. Memphis just let a late comeback slip away against Denver. Friday’s matchup turns on which team can finally string together stops—and whether the Grizzlies can punish the Pelicans’ defense without leaving Zion Williamson an equally inviting route to the basket.
Memphis has the scoring pieces, but needs earlier control
The Grizzlies’ 123-118 loss to Denver wasn’t short on fight. Ty Jerome and Jaylen Wells scored 22 points apiece, and Jerome’s basket with 2:42 left brought Memphis within two. But Denver never trailed, and Cameron Johnson answered with five straight points. Memphis needs to create that pressure before it’s chasing the game.
There was useful support, too: Cedric Coward finished with 15 points and 11 rebounds, Cameron Boozer added 13 and 11, and Cam Spencer scored 15. That gives Memphis several ways to challenge a defense that just struggled against scoring across an entire rotation. Wells and Spencer’s contributions matter here: the Pelicans can’t solve the matchup simply by making Jerome give up the ball.
Still, Memphis has lost four of its last five games, including a 135-134 home loss to New Orleans earlier this month. The Grizzlies have shown they can score against this opponent. They haven’t shown that scoring alone will be enough.
New Orleans needs stops to make Williamson’s scoring count
Williamson scored 29 points in Wednesday’s 145-111 loss to Brooklyn, yet the Pelicans never made the game competitive after halftime. Brooklyn shot 57% from the field and made 20 of 41 threes, with eight players scoring in double figures. For New Orleans, the first repair is preventing one defensive breakdown from becoming an open shot somewhere else.
That loss followed defeats in which the Pelicans allowed 138 and 139 points. But the scoring burden matters just as much: New Orleans managed only 87 points against Golden State before scoring 111 against Brooklyn. Williamson can give the offense a productive focal point without guaranteeing that the Pelicans keep pace.
The frontcourt uncertainty cuts both ways. Memphis has ruled out Zach Edey and Quinten Post, so we’ll watch whether Williamson can force help and create openings for teammates. New Orleans has its own concern: Yves Missi is doubtful with a left knee injury. Neither team should be assumed to have its usual interior options, and no replacement workload is settled here.
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The spread asks Memphis to finish the job
DraftKings lists Memphis as a 3.5-point favorite, with a total of 235.5. The case for laying the points starts with the Pelicans’ inability to contain multiple scorers. Jerome, Wells and the supporting cast don’t need to reproduce Brooklyn’s shooting night to create problems.
The reason to hesitate is Memphis’ own recent inability to control games. The earlier one-point loss to New Orleans is a useful reminder that a productive offense can still leave this matchup hanging on a final possession. To justify paying the favorite’s price, we’d want confidence that Memphis can finish defensive possessions—not merely trade baskets. For the Pelicans, Williamson drawing help and New Orleans avoiding repeated open perimeter looks would make the points more attractive.
The total needs more than another defensive collapse
Our projections give Memphis 14.5 made threes to New Orleans’ 11.1. That points to an important scoring route for the Grizzlies, especially after Brooklyn’s perimeter success. It also gives the total a different question from the spread: can New Orleans contribute enough offense if Memphis starts finding those shots?
The Pelicans’ last three results show why that matters. Their 123-139 and 111-145 losses cleared Friday’s threshold; the 87-138 loss did not. Poor defense can help a total climb, but an offense that stalls can still keep it below this number. The higher-scoring case needs Williamson’s production to bring teammates into the game, while the lower-scoring case becomes stronger if Memphis forces difficult possessions and New Orleans can’t answer from outside. We wouldn’t treat the recent defensive damage as an automatic reason to chase the total upward.
Watch the help, then the next pass
Watch what happens after Williamson draws a second defender and after Jerome moves the ball: does the defense recover, or does the next pass create another clean look? Those possessions will tell us more than an early scoring burst. Visit the NBA betting board to compare this matchup’s spread and total with the rest of the slate as the frontcourt picture becomes clearer.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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