Someone’s unbeaten start will end in Portland, but the spread puts a different question in front of bettors: how much separation is there between these two teams? Memphis has won and covered in all four games, while the Trail Blazers have opened 3-0 and are 7.5-point favorites Thursday. Portland’s scoring depth offers a clear challenge; the Grizzlies’ latest win showed they can find enough offense even when Ty Jerome has a difficult shooting night.
Memphis found more than one way through
Jerome scored 15 points on 4-of-15 shooting in Monday’s 110-105 win at Utah, a different outing from his 45-point season opener against the same opponent. He still contributed eight assists, while Cedric Coward finished with 16 points and 11 rebounds. Jaylen Wells added 14 points, and Cameron Boozer and Jerami Grant scored 13 apiece.
The finish also exposed a vulnerability. Memphis led by 16 late in the third quarter, then saw Utah close within one twice down the stretch. Jerome’s late baskets and free throws from Jerome and Wells helped secure the win. The Grizzlies found answers, but they had to work for a result that had looked more comfortable.
Our historical betting data show four Memphis covers in four games this season, returning a profit of 3.63 units from flat one-unit spread bets at those historical lines and prices. That is a successful start at the lines it has faced, not a reason to treat today’s larger underdog allowance as automatically generous.
Portland can spread the scoring load
Ja Morant and Deni Avdija each scored 23 points in Tuesday’s 136-129 win over the Lakers. Jrue Holiday added 22 and Damian Lillard 21, including a late 3-pointer. Four players reaching at least 21 points gives a concrete picture of the different contributors Memphis must contend with.
The Blazers finished that game on a 15-8 run. Unlike Memphis’s narrowing lead in Utah, Portland created its final separation late. That does not establish a permanent advantage in close games, but it shows why the favorite has more to its case than an unbeaten record.
Our projections also give Portland roughly 46 rebounds to Memphis’s 40. That comparison makes rebounding a useful part of assessing the spread, especially after Coward’s 11-board outing. These are total rebounds, so the gap shouldn’t be read as six extra offensive rebounds or guaranteed second-chance possessions. Memphis’s ability to compete on the boards matters alongside whether its supporting scorers can keep contributing.
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Two different early scoring patterns
The total is 233.5. Portland has scored 124, 128 and 136 points in its three wins, with its last two opponents scoring 120 and 129. The balanced production against Los Angeles provides a supported reason to take the Blazers’ scoring threat seriously, while those defensive results leave room for Memphis to contribute too.
The Grizzlies’ four opponents, however, have scored between 103 and 112 points. Three of those games went Under their respective totals, compared with two Overs in Portland’s three games. Memphis’s 110-point effort at Utah also shows how a win can arrive with less scoring than Portland has needed in its latest outings. These opening samples set up competing possibilities at the current total rather than a settled scoring identity.
Portland has the more expansive recent scoring performance and a projected rebounding advantage. Memphis counters with contributions beyond Jerome and four successful games against the spread, though its late lead erosion is worth remembering. For this matchup, the useful test is whether those Memphis contributions can survive Portland’s multiple scoring options and keep the rebound gap manageable. That is more revealing for the spread than treating either perfect record as proof of parity.
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