Memphis has already beaten Utah by 20 points this season, yet the Grizzlies enter Monday’s rematch as just 1.5-point favorites at DraftKings. That’s an interesting gap between the first result and the latest line: Memphis has started 3-0, while the Jazz have shown enough scoring punch to make their 1-2 record an incomplete picture. Utah’s route to a more competitive rematch starts with that offense—but keeping Memphis within reach is another challenge.
Jerome gives Memphis momentum—and a tough act to follow
Ty Jerome scored 31 points and made all 14 of his free throws as Memphis beat Sacramento 123-112 on Sunday. The Grizzlies also got double-doubles from Cameron Boozer and Cedric Coward, so there was more to that win than one hot scorer. After Sacramento tied it late, Memphis answered with an eight-point burst.
The Grizzlies have covered the spread in all three games this season, including their 123-103 opening win over Utah. The Jazz haven’t covered in their three games. Memphis has delivered both wins and covers so far, though that three-game start gives us much less to work with than a full season would.
Both teams are playing on consecutive days, but Memphis is traveling from Sacramento while Utah stays home. There’s also a personnel wrinkle: the AP’s matchup preview reports Zach Edey out. He also missed Sunday’s game because of left ankle injury management.
Utah’s offense is the strongest counterweight
Utah lost 132-123 to the Lakers on Sunday despite 28 points from Lauri Markkanen, 24 points and 10 assists from Keyonte George, and 20 points from Jaren Jackson Jr. The Jazz built an 18-point second-quarter lead before losing it—a useful snapshot of both their scoring potential and their difficulty protecting an advantage.
We give Utah’s offense a B compared with Memphis’ C. The concern is on the other end: we give the Jazz a D- defensively, with Memphis only slightly higher at D. Utah’s most convincing route to a better result is therefore its scoring, rather than counting on a defensive turnaround.
Our rebounding projections also favor the Jazz, at about 45 rebounds to Memphis’ 40. That makes the boards another matchup to watch alongside the scorers: it’s one area where our outlook favors Utah despite Memphis’ stronger start.
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What matters around a 237.5 total
The posted total is 237.5, and Utah’s productive offense against a defense we rate poorly gives the scoring outlook some support. So does the Jazz’s own defensive vulnerability, especially with Jerome coming off another big game. Sunday’s loss also featured 52 points from Luka Doncic, though, so Utah’s points allowed in that game shouldn’t become an automatic expectation against Memphis.
There’s meaningful pushback, too. These teams combined for 226 points in the opener, and two of Memphis’ first three games finished under their respective totals. Utah’s longer history points the other way: 50 of its 83 games over the past year went over, producing a historical profit of 12.57 units from flat one-unit bets on the over. That broader pattern spans seasons and different prices; the lower-scoring first meeting is the more direct matchup counterweight.
Memphis brings the stronger early results, including a convincing head-to-head win, but Utah has a credible way to make this closer through its scoring options and projected edge on the boards. The biggest obstacle is protecting that work at the other end: the Jazz just lost a game in which they scored 123 points and led by 18. That tension matters to both markets. Utah can challenge Memphis without fixing every defensive problem, but the 237.5 total still asks for a more productive scoring game than their opener delivered.
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