Atlanta and Indiana both need their offense to recover, but they arrive at that problem in different ways. The Hawks missed 38 three-pointers in a blowout Saturday, while the Pacers managed only 90 points in a home loss Sunday. Atlanta is favored on the road Monday, making its ability to turn outside shots into points the central question against an Indiana team still missing Tyrese Haliburton.
Atlanta’s outside shooting has room to recover
The Hawks lost 121–99 at New Orleans after making eight of 46 attempts from three-point range. CJ McCollum scored 14 points, but Atlanta fell behind by double digits in the first quarter and never got the gap below 10 again, according to the AP account of Saturday’s loss.
The start was damaging in more than one way. Eight Atlanta turnovers became 16 New Orleans points in the opening quarter. Better shooting would help, but avoiding another early giveaway problem is also part of getting the offense back on track.
Our three-point projections have Atlanta making about 15 threes, compared with about 13 for Indiana. That puts the Hawks’ outside production well above Saturday’s eight makes. Getting closer to that output would give Atlanta a much different scoring foundation; another night of empty perimeter possessions would leave the favorite vulnerable.
Monday’s injury updates leave Jalen Johnson questionable with an ankle injury and Jock Landale out with a hip injury. Kingston Flemings also won’t play because of a suspension.
Indiana needs more than one good stretch
The Pacers lost 98–90 to Brooklyn on Sunday. Andrew Nembhard scored 23 points and Pascal Siakam had 17, but Indiana shot 32% from the field in the first half and made four of 20 threes before halftime, per the AP report on Sunday’s game.
Indiana got within three early in the fourth quarter, but its scoring couldn’t finish the comeback despite holding Brooklyn below 100.
That report said Haliburton was expected to miss at least another 10 days with a hamstring strain. Nembhard and Siakam supplied 40 points Sunday; Indiana needs more around them.
Indiana also returns to the floor on consecutive nights at home, while Atlanta last played Saturday. The Pacers are trying to fix their scoring quickly after a fourth straight loss.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Hawks vs. Pacers picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
The favorite still has plenty to prove
The DraftKings spread makes Atlanta a 4.5-point favorite. The Hawks are 3–4 outright and against the spread; Indiana is 2–5 outright and 3–4 against the spread. Atlanta has lost four of its last five, so its recent form offers little reassurance for a road favorite.
We rate Atlanta’s offense more highly, at B– compared with Indiana’s C. That gives Atlanta the stronger offensive assessment heading in, but Saturday’s turnovers and shooting misses show the execution that still needs to improve. Johnson’s availability matters within that picture.
The total is 231.5. Both teams’ latest games went Under, but Indiana’s previous outing was a 145–125 loss at Miami. That swing matters at Monday’s number: Indiana’s scoring struggles can pull a game down, while another big night allowed on defense could push it the other way. Our D defensive grade for the Pacers also cautions against treating Sunday’s 98 points allowed as a turnaround.
For the total, Atlanta’s outside shooting and Indiana’s ability to repeat Sunday’s points allowed deserve more attention than the two latest Under results alone. A Hawks shooting rebound would put more pressure on Indiana to find scoring beyond its two Sunday leaders; another cold Atlanta start could give the Pacers room to stay close.
Atlanta has the stronger offensive assessment, while Indiana’s recent defensive showing offers a plausible way to contest the game. The key is whether the Hawks can pair more productive three-point shooting with a cleaner start. The Hawks need improvement in both areas to make their offensive advantage count; Indiana’s best response is to keep the scoring manageable while finding more help for Nembhard and Siakam.
We break down every matchup
Follow the NBA betting board for current odds, model projections and Premium sharp picks as Monday’s games approach.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.