Atlanta’s last win came against Brooklyn, when Aaron Wiggins scored 20 off the bench. The Hawks have lost twice since and now visit Milwaukee, which dropped its ninth straight game on Friday.
If you see Atlanta getting back to winning, there are three ways to follow that view. Wiggins can give the Hawks points from the second unit. On the Milwaukee side, Brayden Burries’s three-point line and Tyler Herro’s rebounds and assists ask different questions about how the Bucks get their offense.
Player props for a Hawks win
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Wiggins Over 12.5 points |
−109 | 85.7% 6 of 7 ATL wins |
61.5% 8 of 13 games |
| Brayden Burries Under 1.5 threes made |
−174 | 91.7% 11 of 12 MIL losses |
92.3% 12 of 13 games |
| Tyler Herro Under 9.5 rebounds + assists |
−129 | 81.8% 9 of 11 MIL losses |
75.0% 9 of 12 games |
Aaron Wiggins over 12.5 points
Wiggins made five threes against Brooklyn, but his 19-point night against Washington shows how he can score when fewer of those shots go in. Five of his eight baskets that night came inside the arc. If Milwaukee chases him off the line, watch whether he can get past the closeout and finish.
Wiggins reached 13 in six of Atlanta’s seven wins. The exception was a seven-point game at Indiana, when he made one of six threes. He also finished with nine in 25 minutes against Chicago on Friday. The points line costs less than his two-threes line, and he can make up the difference with drives or free throws.
Brayden Burries under 1.5 threes made
Burries scored 21 in 38 minutes against Toronto and made one three. If Atlanta runs him off the line, he can stay involved as a driver without getting to two makes. He started against Orlando on Friday and made one of two attempts from deep.
Nine of the 11 loss unders landed on exactly one. The opener at Washington showed how quickly the under can go away. Burries made both of his attempts in under 16 minutes, so even a shorter stint offers little protection if the looks are clean.
Tyler Herro under 9.5 rebounds and assists
Herro can still lead the offense as a scorer. He had 18 points against Orlando, but finished with one rebound and two assists while Myles Turner and Ryan Rollins each grabbed double-digit boards. If the Bucks’ bigger players and other guards are collecting the misses, Herro needs more made shots off his passes to reach 10 combined.
He can get there on assists alone. In the Toronto loss, Herro had 10 assists and five rebounds. He also landed exactly on nine four times in losses. If Atlanta’s help defense is leaving open shooters after he turns the corner, the combined under gets harder to make a case for.
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What to watch in Milwaukee
Wiggins’s first stint can show whether Atlanta is getting him touches with room to shoot or drive. On the other end, watch where Herro’s passes lead. A kick-out that gives Burries a clean three puts pressure on both Milwaukee unders at once.
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