Charlotte hit 23 threes to end a six-game losing streak. Phoenix answered with 22 in its own runaway win. That makes this matchup fun, but the bigger question is what happens when those shots stop falling: can the Hornets keep creating good possessions, or do the Suns have more ways to pull away?
Charlotte found its shot—and still had to finish the job
Grayson Allen scored 27 points and Naz Reid added 25 points and 13 rebounds in Charlotte’s 124-112 win over Cleveland on Monday. The Hornets made 23 of 46 from deep after entering that game shooting just 28.8% from 3-point range. That’s a welcome breakthrough, but it also explains why one win doesn’t settle the questions around this offense.
The finish offers another reason to look beyond the shooting. Charlotte built a 33-point third-quarter lead, then let Cleveland get within eight before Royce O’Neale’s right-wing three with 2:40 remaining restored a 13-point cushion. Against Phoenix, the Hornets need more than an early burst. They need possessions that produce a clean shot when the opponent starts closing the gap.
Their recent form shows how much remains to prove: Charlotte scored 79, 89, 91 and 80 points in four of the six losses immediately before beating Cleveland. Allen and Reid gave the offense a way out on Monday; the next step is keeping it functional without needing half its threes to fall.
Charlotte also has to account for Brandon Miller’s absence with a groin injury. That puts more importance on sustaining the shared scoring that worked against Cleveland, rather than assuming one player can rescue a stalled possession.
Phoenix’s depth made Booker’s job easier
The Suns’ 133-110 win over the Clippers on Tuesday didn’t require a huge Devin Booker scoring night. He finished with 17 points as seven Suns reached double figures, five of them off the bench. Collin Gillespie supplied 12 points and eight assists, while Khaman Maluach added 11 points and seven rebounds.
Jordan Goodwin supplied the most explosive stretch, making six of seven threes in 14 minutes. Phoenix can’t reasonably build its next game around that conversion rate. What matters here is whether the supporting cast keeps contributing when Booker isn’t taking the shot. Multiple scoring options would make it harder for Charlotte to survive an uneven offensive stretch of its own.
Phoenix has won three of its last four games, including a 102-99 win over Houston and a 117-104 win over Orlando. Those results offer a different path from Tuesday’s shooting show: the Suns have recently won games without needing to reach 120 points.
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The spread turns on possession control
DraftKings has Phoenix favored by 6.5 points. The case for paying that price rests on the Suns creating a steadier supply of shots—not simply carrying Tuesday’s shooting percentage into another game.
Our team-stat projections put Phoenix at 25.8 assists and 13.1 turnovers, compared with 18.3 assists and 16.4 turnovers for Charlotte. We see ball movement and ball security as the key separation points. If the Suns turn defensive stops into possessions while the Hornets give opportunities away, Phoenix won’t need another extraordinary night from deep to build a cushion.
The reason to hesitate is Charlotte’s ability to stay attached through Allen and Reid while avoiding empty trips. Phoenix has covered only three of its 10 games this season, although all three covers came in its last four. The recent improvement matters, but so does the distinction between winning and consistently creating separation. Charlotte protecting the ball would make the favorite’s task much harder.
A 213.5 total asks a different question
The total is 213.5. Both teams’ latest games cleared that threshold comfortably, but those wins came with exceptional 3-point shooting. For the over to be worth taking, there needs to be a believable source of scoring beyond another barrage: Phoenix’s passing generating opportunities for several scorers, and Charlotte producing enough offense to keep both teams involved.
The under case centers on Charlotte’s recurring scoring droughts and Phoenix’s ability to win a lower-scoring game. Six of the Hornets’ last 10 games stayed under their closing totals; six of Phoenix’s 10 games this season went over. Those histories point in different directions. The useful distinction is whether Charlotte’s missed shots become quick Phoenix offense or whether both teams spend longer possessions searching for a basket. Turnovers could widen the spread without necessarily helping the total if the Suns don’t turn them into points.
Watch the possessions between the threes
Keep an eye on Charlotte’s first few trips after a missed three: can it get back, force Phoenix into a half-court possession and create a better look next time? That sequence will tell us more than an early hot streak. Visit the NBA betting board to compare this matchup’s spread and total with the rest of the slate as the numbers move.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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