Carolina brings eight wins in its last 10 games into Saturday’s visit to St. Louis, but the Blues have a timely answer to the Hurricanes’ projected shooting advantage: expected goalie Joel Hofer has allowed just three goals across his past two appearances. With Carolina favored at -155, the interesting question is how much that edge in opportunities is worth against a goalie coming off two strong outings.
Carolina has the volume; St. Louis has a counterweight
Our shot projections put Carolina at about 32 shots on goal and St. Louis at about 25. That’s a meaningful difference in expected shooting volume, even without assuming the Hurricanes will create better chances. Our A- grade for Carolina’s attack also puts it well ahead of the Blues’ C- assessment.
The Hurricanes have been scoring lately, too. They beat Vancouver 6-3 on Tuesday before losing 6-5 at Edmonton on Thursday. Those games show why Carolina is a difficult opponent, while also showing that a productive attack hasn’t made every night comfortable.
Hofer is the strongest counterweight to Carolina’s shooting outlook. Across his last five appearances, he has a .911 save percentage and a 2.63 goals-against average. His past two outings were especially good: 32 saves against Winnipeg, followed by 27 against Vegas. If he starts, St. Louis has recent examples of him handling substantial work while keeping opponents to one or two goals.
The Blues supplied plenty of help Thursday, beating Vegas 6-2 behind a four-point night from Justin Barron and two goals from Dylan Holloway. That’s a more encouraging entry point for St. Louis than its 5-5 record across the last 10 games alone suggests.
Winning often and getting a good price are different things
The current moneyline at DraftKings makes Carolina a -155 favorite, with St. Louis at +130. There’s useful perspective in our historical betting data: the Hurricanes have won eight of 12 games this season, but backing them outright for one flat unit each game produced a profit of only 0.15 units at those games’ prices. Carolina has rewarded confidence on the scoreboard much more than in betting returns.
That makes Hofer’s recent performance relevant to the price discussion. Carolina’s expected shot advantage supports its favorite status; St. Louis’ case rests on narrowing the scoring impact of that advantage and getting another productive night from its skaters. Neither the recent wins nor the shot projections alone settle whether today’s price is attractive.
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Why the 6.5 total deserves a closer look
Seven of the Blues’ last 10 games have gone over their posted totals, but nine of those games carried a 5.5 total. Saturday’s 6.5 asks more of the scoring environment, so that over record needs some context.
Carolina’s recent scoring and projected shot volume give the higher total a credible foundation. The counterweights are Hofer’s recent results and Carolina’s own goaltending picture: expected starter Pyotr Kochetkov has a 2.00 goals-against average across his last five appearances, with a .901 save percentage. The Hurricanes’ last 10 games have also split evenly between overs and unders. There’s a real scoring case here, but the Blues’ over history is less persuasive at a higher number against this opponent.
Carolina has the clearer case for generating more shots, backed by the stronger attack grade and eight wins in its last 10 games. Hofer’s recent ability to handle a busy night is the main challenge to turning that advantage into a comfortable result. For the price discussion, Carolina’s slim historical betting profit is a useful reminder that frequent wins aren’t the same as generous odds. At 6.5, the key tension is between Carolina’s recent scoring and the goalies’ recent results—not simply the Blues’ over record.
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