UCLA scored twice on two offensive snaps in the fourth quarter at Minnesota. Ty Dieffenbach hit Aidan Mizell for a 75-yard touchdown on each play, turning a game that had been tied in the third into a 34–20 win. Illinois brings four straight wins to the Rose Bowl. Can the Illini keep the ball in front of them and make the Bruins earn their first downs?
What happens when the deep ball goes away?
Those two throws accounted for 150 of Dieffenbach’s 303 passing yards, but Wayne Knight also ran for 109. Our rushing projections put UCLA around 187 yards on the ground and Illinois around 148. If Illinois keeps its safeties deep, Knight can still make that choice costly by keeping the Bruins out of long third downs.
UCLA was a 10-point favorite in the DraftKings snapshot. Illinois showed how it can keep the game close even if its own running game stalls. The Illini ran for just 84 yards against Nebraska, but Katin Houser threw for 292 and Collin Dixon caught two touchdowns in a 24–13 win. If Houser and Dixon can keep drives moving again, Illinois can limit the chances UCLA gets to build a lead.
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How quickly can the scoring change?
With the total at 47.5, the last three Illinois games offer one picture. They finished at 37, 37 and 31 combined points, including a 21–10 win over Oregon. UCLA beat Oregon 17–15, and three of its last four games finished below 40. The exception was the 54-point game at Minnesota, when the Bruins added two touchdowns without having to sustain either drive.
Watch what happens on the next possession after a big play. If Houser can answer a quick UCLA score, both teams can contribute to the total without many long drives. If the Bruins can move the chains with Knight while Illinois keeps giving the ball back, UCLA can build a cushion in a slower game.
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