Ohio State’s passing game looked explosive last weekend, but Illinois brings a tougher defensive test than Kent State did. The Buckeyes have the stronger grades on both sides of the ball; the Illini have a passing game capable of answering. Whether Illinois can turn that into sustained possessions is the question behind a 27.5-point spread.
Ohio State’s passing advantage gets a test
Julian Sayin threw for 242 yards and two touchdowns in Ohio State’s 59-3 win over Kent State, while Jeremiah Smith caught five passes for 85 yards, the AP reported. Our A+ offensive grade for the Buckeyes and A- defensive grade for Illinois make this the matchup to watch. Kent State offered little resistance, though, so last week’s score says less about how easily Ohio State will move the ball here.
Illinois has a way to push back. Katin Houser threw for 305 yards against Southern Illinois, and Collin Dixon caught eight passes for 131 yards in that 48-10 win, according to the AP. Ohio State’s defense carries an A grade in our ratings, making productive Illinois possessions harder to come by than they were last Saturday. A few explosive plays would help, but keeping the Buckeyes’ offense off the field calls for drives the Illini can sustain.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Illinois vs. Ohio State picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
The margin depends on what happens between big plays
The latest 27.5-point spread gives Illinois room to compete without matching Ohio State drive for drive. Our team projections put the Buckeyes near 450 total yards and the Illini near 315, with Ohio State approaching 295 passing yards. That’s a meaningful gap in expected production, but yards alone won’t determine whether the Buckeyes pull far enough away. How often Illinois extends drives—and how efficiently Ohio State finishes its own—matters just as much.
The 53.5 total brings those same possessions into focus. Both teams scored freely last week against different opponents, while Ohio State was held to 23 points at Texas the week before. Illinois’s A- defensive grade offers a reason to expect more resistance than Kent State provided. For the scoring pace to stay high, the Illini likely need to contribute sustained offense rather than leave Ohio State with repeated short possessions and little pressure to answer.
Ohio State has the clearer route to controlling the game through its passing attack and stronger overall grades. Illinois’s best counter is to make that attack wait: move the chains, finish some drives and force the Buckeyes to earn their separation against a capable defense. That battle for possessions is the most useful way to judge both the margin and the scoring outlook.
We break down every matchup
Explore our college football betting board for sharp picks, current odds and model projections across the league’s games.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
