Jacksonville State has won four straight, but its trip to New Mexico State presents a specific challenge: can the Gamecocks keep their ground game productive against the Aggies’ conference-leading run defense? Jacksonville State is a three-point favorite Wednesday night, and our projections give it the larger rushing workload and output. New Mexico State has a compelling response, though, after James Jones ran for 178 yards in its latest win.
A rushing advantage that still has to be earned
New Mexico State’s strength against the run is a central theme in Yahoo Sports’ matchup preview. Our rushing projections put Jacksonville State at roughly 184 yards on 39 carries, compared with about 123 yards on 32 carries for the Aggies. That makes the visitors’ ability to sustain their rushing production the most interesting matchup within the game—not something to take for granted because they arrive with the better record.
Caden Creel gives Jacksonville State another route forward. He threw for 214 yards and two touchdowns when the Gamecocks edged FIU 27-24 in their previous game. Both touchdown passes came in the first quarter, while the winning possession covered 82 yards in 13 plays before Garrison Rippa’s late field goal. Jacksonville State showed it could score through the air and put together a long drive when it needed one.
The winning streak deserves some perspective at this spread. The Gamecocks’ last two victories came by one point and three points. They’ve been finding ways to win, but those margins haven’t left much room for bettors backing them as favorites.
Jones gives the Aggies a credible counter
New Mexico State’s latest performance is more encouraging than its 3-4 record alone suggests. Jones rushed for 178 yards and a touchdown, and Adam Damante threw two touchdown passes as the Aggies beat Sam Houston 30-24 last Wednesday. They also closed the game with a six-play, 44-yard possession that ran out the clock.
Our projections put New Mexico State’s team rushing output below Jones’ individual total from that win. They do give the Aggies a slight passing-yardage advantage, about 225 yards to 212, with both teams around 21 first downs. That’s an important counterweight to Jacksonville State’s projected rushing advantage: the comparison is less one-sided when it comes to moving the chains. For the home underdog, getting useful production from both Jones and Damante offers a more convincing path than relying on Jones to repeat his last outing.
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What matters at a total of 49.5
The scoring evidence pulls in both directions. Five of Jacksonville State’s seven games this season have gone over their sportsbook totals, while four of New Mexico State’s seven have gone under. The Aggies’ own recent results show the range: they scored three points at FIU before putting up 30 against Sam Houston.
At 49.5, sustained rushing production would help keep possessions moving, but the recent games also show how differently those possessions can end. Jacksonville State’s latest win featured two early touchdown passes, then an 82-yard winning drive that ended in a field goal. New Mexico State scored touchdowns on drives of just one and two plays against Sam Houston. Those few-play scoring drives provide a counterweight to the Aggies’ uneven offensive results, though one productive outing doesn’t establish that they can repeat it against Jacksonville State.
The matchup to watch
Jacksonville State brings the steadier recent results and the stronger projected rushing output, but New Mexico State’s run defense makes that advantage something the visitors still have to earn. The Aggies’ slight projected passing edge and similar first-down output give them a credible way to stay involved even without another huge game from Jones. With Jacksonville State’s last two wins decided by three points or fewer, the key distinction is whether its ground game can sustain drives that end in touchdowns rather than leave Creel facing stalled possessions. That matters to both the favorite’s room at the spread and the scoring outlook at 49.5.
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