Dallas has won three straight, Winnipeg has lost three straight, and the Stars enter Thursday’s matchup as a clear favorite. But the interesting question is how Dallas separates itself: our projections point to nearly equal shooting volume, while the Stars’ recent defensive results have been much stronger. That distinction matters both for their moneyline price and a game total of 5.5.
Dallas’ case starts with keeping goals out
Dallas’ -205 moneyline at DraftKings puts a substantial price on extending its winning streak. The Stars have allowed just four goals during those three wins, beating Colorado 3-2, Chicago 4-0 and Boston 3-2 in overtime. It’s a convincing stretch, though the two one-goal wins show that Dallas hasn’t needed to overwhelm every opponent.
Jake Oettinger’s recent goaltending results are a big part of that picture. Across his last five appearances this season, he has a .946 save percentage and two shutouts. Our grades also rate Dallas’ team defense highly at A-, compared with C+ for Winnipeg. Those results and our assessment give the favorite a stronger foundation than the winning streak alone.
Winnipeg’s counterweight in the expected goalie matchup is Stuart Skinner, who has a .918 save percentage across his last five appearances this season and allowed two goals in four of them. His recent results give the Jets a plausible way to stay close even if their scoring remains limited.
A nearly even shot count changes the emphasis
Our shot projections put both teams at roughly 26 shots on goal. That makes it harder to build Dallas’ case around a large shooting-volume advantage; the stronger argument is what the Stars have done to limit scoring. Winnipeg has scored six goals across its three straight losses, most recently falling 2-1 at St. Louis on Tuesday. Cole Perfetti supplied the Jets’ lone goal, his sixth of the season.
Dallas also has a recent reminder that it can find a scoring burst without dominating the shot count. Mikko Rantanen scored all three Stars goals against Boston, completing his hat trick in overtime in Tuesday’s 3-2 win. Winnipeg’s task isn’t simply to match Dallas shot for shot; it’s to generate enough production against a team and goalie that have been difficult to beat.
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What the 5.5 total asks of this matchup
All nine Dallas games this season have finished Under their posted totals. Flat one-unit Under bets across those nine games returned a historical profit of 7.88 units. Winnipeg has gone Under in six of its nine games this season, too.
At the current 5.5 total, the useful support for a restrained scoring outlook is more specific than the streak: Dallas’ recent goals allowed, both goalies’ five-appearance results and our modest shot projections. The counterweight is Dallas’ scoring ability—it has produced 10 goals during its three-game winning streak, with Rantanen providing the latest example. Those earlier Unders also came against a mix of 5.5 and 6.5 totals, so the streak alone doesn’t settle the value of this number.
The strongest case for paying Dallas’ favorite price rests on its ability to keep scoring down, not an expected barrage of shots. Skinner’s recent form is the main counterweight: Winnipeg may not need a large shooting advantage to keep this close. The key test is whether the Jets can turn a similar number of shots into better production than they’ve managed during their skid. That makes Dallas’ defensive performance more useful to weigh than either team’s streak alone, while the lower total leaves less room to lean on past Under results.
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