Los Angeles finally gave itself something to build on Tuesday. Now comes the harder part: showing that its five-goal breakthrough can carry forward against an Islanders team that’s been keeping games tight. The Kings’ first win offers encouragement, but New York’s steadier recent goaltending makes this a tougher test of whether their attack has really turned a corner.
A breakthrough with an important complication
Adrian Kempe scored twice as the Kings rallied from 2-0 down to beat Washington 5-2 on Tuesday. Artemi Panarin also scored, and Los Angeles produced its highest-scoring game of the season. That followed four consecutive games with just one goal apiece.
There’s a meaningful personnel concern alongside that improvement. Quinton Byfield is considered day-to-day with an upper-body injury, Zach Dooley of the Kings’ official site reported Wednesday, after Byfield left Tuesday’s game. His second-line center role makes his availability relevant to whether Los Angeles can build on that offensive progress.
The Islanders have a steadier recent foundation. They beat Anaheim 3-2 on Tuesday, scoring all three goals in the first period, and have won three of their last four games. Across those four, New York allowed just seven goals.
Why the moneyline is still close
DraftKings’ moneyline prices have the Islanders at -115 and the Kings at -105. That’s a narrow gap for teams with records of 5-3-1 and 1-4-2, respectively, but our matchup evaluations give Los Angeles more credit than its record alone would suggest.
We rate the Kings’ attack a C compared with the Islanders’ D+, while Los Angeles also has the stronger team defensive grade, A- to B. Those evaluations offer a reason to take the Kings seriously here. The counterweight is what the goalies have actually done lately.
Ilya Sorokin has a .917 save percentage across his last five appearances for New York, allowing two goals or fewer in four of them. Darcy Kuemper’s five-appearance save percentage is .869, although that stretch includes an eight-goal outing at Colorado and a short appearance against Edmonton. His latest performance was much better: 30 saves on 32 shots against Washington. If both get the starts, Sorokin brings the steadier recent sample, while Kuemper brings an encouraging last game.
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What matters around a 5.5-goal total
The posted total is 5.5, and New York’s recent results give that number useful context. Six of the Islanders’ nine games this season finished Under their respective sportsbook totals. Flat one-unit Under bets across those games returned a historical profit of 2.72 units.
Our team projections call for roughly 28 shots apiece and about three power-play opportunities for each team. That leaves little separation in expected shooting volume or power-play chances. Sorokin’s recent form and the Kings’ scoring struggles before Tuesday support a tighter scoring picture at 5.5; Kuemper’s uneven five-appearance stretch and Los Angeles’ breakthrough push against that reading. Both teams also scored on the power play Tuesday, making special-teams finishing worth watching even with similar projected opportunities.
The useful takeaway
The Islanders’ better record and steadier recent goaltending give them a credible foundation, but the Kings’ stronger grades keep this from being a simple standings comparison. Tuesday supplied evidence that Los Angeles can produce more; a follow-up against Sorokin, if he starts, would make that improvement more convincing. With little projected separation in shots or power-play opportunities, the close moneyline puts the focus on whether the Kings can sustain their scoring improvement—and whether Kuemper can back up his own rebound rather than leave them chasing another deficit.
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