Luka Doncic’s 41 points were not enough to keep the Lakers unbeaten Tuesday. Their next test comes immediately against a Clippers team that has lost twice but covered all three of its spreads. The rematch is a useful reminder to separate scoring power, winning games and creating enough separation to reward a favorite.
The Lakers’ offense wasn’t the problem Tuesday
The Lakers lost 136-129 to Portland despite 41 points and nine assists from Doncic and 26 points from Austin Reaves. The Trail Blazers closed on a 15-8 run, with Damian Lillard hitting a late three-pointer to help finish the game. The Lakers kept scoring, but they could not get enough stops to protect their perfect start.
They are still 3-1, with at least 125 points in every game this season. That includes a 125-117 win over the Clippers last week. The Lakers did not cover the 8.5-point spread in that game, a particularly relevant distinction for this second meeting. This time the Clippers host at Intuit Dome, and the Lakers are playing on consecutive nights.
The Clippers last played Sunday, losing 108-101 at Oklahoma City. Darius Garland scored 16 points, and a Derrick Jones Jr. three-pointer brought the Clippers within one with three minutes left before the Thunder pulled away. They have stayed competitive against the spread, but their 1-2 record shows that turning close stretches into wins remains a separate challenge.
The favorite has advantages beyond one scorer
DraftKings makes the Lakers a 4.5-point favorite. Our projections have them recording about 27 assists to the Clippers’ 20 and 43 rebounds to 39. Those comparisons give the Lakers a case through assisted scoring and work on the glass, rather than relying entirely on another huge individual scoring night.
The Clippers’ three covers are worth keeping in perspective too. Their two losses came with larger cushions than they receive here: 8.5 points against the Lakers and 16.5 at Oklahoma City. Holding up against those spreads is useful evidence of competitiveness, but it leaves a different task at today’s number.
Rui Hachimura is out with a quadriceps injury for Wednesday’s game, according to Joey Linn of SI.com. That costs the Clippers an expected forward as they try to produce more offense. The schedule is a counterweight in their favor: they have had two days without a game since Sunday, while the Lakers are coming straight from Tuesday’s loss.
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Who sets the scoring pattern?
The total is 229.5. The Lakers’ last three games have gone Over their respective totals, including the first meeting with the Clippers. The Clippers’ other two games went Under. Their latest outings illustrate the split: the Lakers scored 129 and still lost, while the Clippers were held to 101.
Our offensive grades favor the Lakers, B+ to D-, but the Clippers have the slightly better defensive grade, B to B-. That creates competing routes for this total. Continued Lakers scoring and another difficult defensive night would push the game toward their recent pattern. A Clippers game shaped more like Sunday’s loss would put greater pressure on the Lakers to supply the offense. Hachimura’s absence also matters to the Clippers’ contribution, without making a repeat of either last score inevitable.
The Lakers have the stronger scoring record and projected advantages in assists and rebounds. The Clippers’ response rests on their defense and their recent ability to stay competitive, with more time between games helping frame the challenge. At a smaller underdog cushion than in either loss, staying close enough to cover puts more pressure on them to turn those defensive strengths into a complete performance.
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