Franz Wagner turned Orlando’s last game around with 21 fourth-quarter points, while Toronto’s latest game without Kawhi Leonard ended in a 23-point loss. The Raptors are still 4.5-point favorites here, so this matchup asks how much to trust the Magic’s breakthrough—and whether Toronto can find a better offensive balance with Leonard out again.
Wagner gave Orlando a way out of a difficult start
The Magic beat New York 111-102 on Sunday after losing their first two games. Wagner had only two points before the fourth quarter, then finished with 23 points, 13 rebounds and nine assists. Orlando outscored the Knicks 40-27 in the final period of Sunday’s win.
That comeback provides a specific reason to take Orlando seriously beyond its 1-2 record. Wagner recovered from a 1-for-10 shooting start and supplied much more than scoring. The Magic also shot 43% from three-point range, giving them another important source of offense as they erased a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit.
Anthony Black added 18 points and five assists in that win. He missed Wednesday's morning shootaround for personal reasons, Jason Beede of the Orlando Sentinel reported. His availability deserves attention after such a useful contribution. Missing shootaround doesn’t settle whether he’ll play, but it does make him a relevant part of judging how much of Sunday’s supporting offense Orlando can bring back.
Toronto needs more around its three leading scorers
The Raptors lost 117-94 at Minnesota on Sunday after winning their first two games. Ja’Kobe Walter scored 22 points, RJ Barrett had 20 and Immanuel Quickley added 19 in Sunday’s loss. Toronto fell behind by double digits in the first quarter and was outrebounded 49-34.
Leonard is out with a knee injury, with ESPN’s Shams Charania reporting an expected absence of multiple weeks. His absence keeps the focus on the group Toronto used in Minnesota, where Walter supplied scoring in his place but the team still struggled to keep up. The Raptors did score 135 against Chicago and 112 at Washington in their earlier wins, giving them a better offensive performance to aim for than the 94-point result.
Orlando has a potential counterweight to Toronto’s home-favorite case at the foul line. Our projections have the Magic making about 20 free throws to the Raptors’ 16. That’s one plausible source of scoring support for Wagner and Orlando’s shooters, particularly in a matchup with a modest spread. It doesn’t require the Magic to repeat their fourth-quarter burst to contribute useful points.
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A 222.5 total with uneven offensive evidence
All three Toronto games this season have gone Under their respective totals, as have two of Orlando’s three. The Magic’s latest win included a huge closing quarter, but they had scored only 93 in their previous loss to Minnesota. Toronto’s own scoring has ranged from 94 to 135 through three games, so neither offense has established a steady level yet.
At 222.5, Leonard’s absence and the Raptors’ latest struggles weigh against simply carrying their opening-night output forward. Orlando’s three-point shooting in New York and its favorable free-throw outlook provide the scoring counterweight, with Black’s status relevant after his 18-point outing. The useful distinction is between an offense finding contributions across a full game and one needing another exceptional late surge.
What would make the favorite’s case stronger?
Toronto has two early wins and three players who still scored well in Minnesota, but it needs a more complete performance without Leonard. Orlando has Wagner’s demonstrated ability to recover and create, plus a plausible scoring contribution at the line. The Raptors’ response around Walter, Barrett and Quickley matters more than their better record alone; for the Magic, keeping Sunday’s supporting production available would make the comeback a more convincing foundation.
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