Logan Cooley has six goals in four games, and Utah needed every part of his latest hat trick to escape Pittsburgh with a win. That gives the Mammoth a compelling scoring threat for Sunday’s visit to Philadelphia. It also leaves a useful question for a road favorite: can Utah turn that attacking form into a less precarious result against a Flyers team struggling to keep goals out?
Cooley is giving Utah a way through
Cooley scored with one second left in regulation to complete his hat trick Thursday, before Mikhail Sergachev scored in overtime to give Utah a 4-3 win. It was Cooley’s seventh goal of the season and sixth in four games. Sebastian Cossa made 31 saves in that victory.
The Mammoth have won six of their last 10 games, but their latest six outings have all come with at least three goals allowed. Their scoring has helped them win three of those six despite that. Cooley’s run is valuable in precisely that setting: Utah has recently needed offense to overcome the goals it has been conceding.
His points line is 0.5, with the Over at -165 and the Under at +120. The recent goals make that market relevant, but the price is part of the decision, too. A productive scoring stretch is a reason to examine the market closely, rather than assume the same return at any odds.
The Flyers have a chance to steady things in goal
Philadelphia has lost three straight, allowing five goals to Anaheim, four to Columbus and five to Washington. The latest was Wednesday’s 5-2 road defeat, in which Washington’s final goal went into an empty net and Joseph Woll made 25 saves. Those are team results, and Sunday’s goaltending matchup brings Dan Vladar into the picture.
Vladar stopped 119 of 132 shots across his five most recent Flyers starts for a .902 save percentage. That stretch includes one goal allowed against both Ottawa and Buffalo, but also four on 15 shots in his latest outing against Columbus. His stronger games offer Philadelphia a route to a tighter contest; the Columbus result shows why that response cannot be taken for granted.
Karel Vejmelka’s latest Utah outing ended with 27 saves on 30 shots in a 3-1 loss to Minnesota. He also allowed four goals on 24 shots at Seattle and five on 17 shots against Edmonton earlier in October. Utah’s recent team wins don’t erase the uneven results in his own starts, just as Philadelphia’s latest loss with Woll doesn’t describe Vladar’s entire recent stretch.
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The favorite’s case and the 6.5 total
DraftKings has Utah at -162 and Philadelphia at +136. The Mammoth’s attacking production gives the favorite a case, especially against a team that has allowed 14 goals across its last three games. But Utah’s own goals allowed and Vladar’s better performances give the Flyers a way to make that price uncomfortable.
Our projections put Utah at about 28 shots and Philadelphia at 25. That gives the Mammoth a modest edge in expected shooting volume. With the gap that small, how Vladar handles Utah’s scoring threats matters more than the shot difference alone.
The total is 6.5, with the Under at -135 and the Over at +114. Philadelphia’s season history leans toward lower-scoring games: 10 of its 15 have gone Under their posted totals. The recent direction is different, with each of the Flyers’ last three games going Over. Utah games have gone Over in nine of 14 this season.
That leaves a real tension at this number. Cooley’s form and both teams’ recent goals allowed make a higher-scoring game plausible. Vladar’s better starts, together with Philadelphia’s broader scoring history, supply the counterweight. Utah’s offensive case is clearer than its ability to keep Philadelphia quiet, so judging the moneyline and total separately is especially useful here.
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