Utah won the first meeting with Toronto 5–4, and the Mammoth are slight favorites for Tuesday’s rematch. The Leafs have put up at least four in five of their last six, so Utah may need another big night from its attack.
How Toronto can put pressure on the favorite
DraftKings had Utah at −130 in its 9:39 a.m. ET snapshot. We grade the Mammoth higher up front, and our shot projections give them a small edge in shots, about 28 to 26. Toronto can create good looks with quick puck movement. Auston Matthews traded passes with Darren Raddysh before beating the goalie short side in Saturday’s 4–2 win over Vancouver, the AP reported. William Nylander also had a goal and an assist. There’s enough scoring across those two lines to make Utah work for the road win.
Utah’s 6–3 loss to Philadelphia on Sunday also showed how hard it can be to chase a lead. Mikhail Sergachev scored on a late power play and Logan Cooley added a goal with the extra attacker, according to the AP recap. That gives Utah a couple of ways to find goals when it needs them. Getting on the board earlier would give those goals a better chance to matter.
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What could make 6.5 play differently this time
Five of Toronto’s last six games finished with at least seven goals, though Saturday’s win fell short of DraftKings’ 6.5 total even with a late empty-net goal. The recent goalie logs show how much the results can swing. Karel Vejmelka, who was unconfirmed for Utah, allowed at least four goals in three of his four recent starts with complete shot and save totals. Toronto’s confirmed starter, Sergei Bobrovsky, gave up five on 17 shots against Seattle after stopping 30 of 31 against San Jose earlier in the same five-start stretch.
The first meeting cleared 6.5 comfortably with both attacks contributing. Against Vancouver, Toronto scored four and the game still finished at six. Utah’s small projected edge in shots gives it more opportunity to supply those goals. A night like Bobrovsky’s against San Jose could make that extra volume much less important.
Watch whether Toronto can finish chances off quick exchanges like the Matthews goal. If it can, Utah’s edge in shot volume may buy the Mammoth less breathing room than the price suggests. If Utah keeps those looks scarce, its shot advantage could give it more room to dictate play.
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