Edmonton has won five straight, but Utah looks capable of making the Oilers work for another. The Mammoth arrive with a 5-2 record and five different goal scorers from their latest win, while Edmonton’s attack keeps producing behind Connor McDavid. The interesting question Thursday is how much separation that star power creates against a Utah team that’s also finding ways to win.
Edmonton’s attack is rolling—but the price still matters
DraftKings’ current moneylines make Edmonton a modest home favorite at -125, with Utah at +105. Edmonton’s 5-0-1 start gives that favorite status some support, but Utah’s early results make this more interesting than a mismatch.
McDavid delivered four points in Edmonton’s 4-1 win over Los Angeles on Tuesday, and Vasily Podkolzin scored twice. There was a significant warning underneath the score, though: the Kings outshot Edmonton 40-16, and Devon Levi made 39 saves. The Oilers won comfortably despite generating far fewer shots.
Our analysis gives Edmonton’s attack an A- grade against Utah’s B, but our shooting projections suggest a much closer comparison: about 29 shots for the Oilers and 28 for the Mammoth. We rate Edmonton’s attack more highly, but don’t expect a large gap in shooting volume.
Utah has more than one scoring route
Utah beat Toronto 5-4 on Tuesday with goals from Dylan Guenther, Mikhail Sergachev, Daniil But, Vincent Trocheck and MacKenzie Weegar. Guenther and Sergachev each added an assist. That spread of contributors gives this matchup more texture than a simple comparison between McDavid and Clayton Keller.
The Mammoth have scored at least four goals in five of their seven games this season. Their latest win also showed the vulnerability: a 5-2 lead narrowed to one goal, and Karel Vejmelka needed late saves during a penalty kill to preserve it. Utah’s scoring has been a genuine strength, but Tuesday wasn’t a clean shutdown performance.
Edmonton also has an availability concern: Zach Hyman is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury.
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Why 6.5 goals isn’t a simple scoring-streak bet
The posted total is 6.5, and both attacks offer reasons to expect scoring. The recent goaltending numbers add to that case: Tristan Jarry has an .837 save percentage across his two recent appearances for Edmonton, while Vejmelka has an .881 mark across his last five appearances for Utah. Those are limited samples, particularly Jarry’s, but neither offers much recent statistical reassurance against these attacks.
There’s also a useful check on the high-scoring narrative. Three of Edmonton’s last four games finished under 6.5, even as the Oilers kept winning. They’ve allowed only five goals across those four games, although Tuesday’s result leaned heavily on Levi’s saves. That low goals-against stretch deserves weight, but Levi’s performance doesn’t establish Jarry’s form.
Edmonton’s stronger attack gives the modest favorite price a credible foundation; Utah’s scoring depth and the close shot projections explain why the gap still looks competitive. At 6.5, the tension is between Edmonton’s recent low-scoring wins and the less reassuring goalie samples—not simply whether McDavid stays hot. The practical distinction is to weigh the Oilers’ winning streak separately from how much shooting volume and goaltending support accompanied it.
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