Toronto scored five goals in its win over the Rangers without a point from Auston Matthews. He still registered four shots on goal. A shooting target can ask for a useful contribution without needing him to appear on the scoresheet.
Starting with a hypothetical Toronto win over Vancouver, these Maple Leafs parlay picks compare Matthews reaching two shots, Gavin McKenna staying below three shots and Marco Rossi finishing without an assist. Those targets allow plenty of other contributions: Matthews can go without a point, McKenna can set up a goal, and Rossi can score one himself.
Maple Leafs parlay picks: three different contributions
The Maple Leafs are 7–6–2 and the Canucks are 3–11–1. The table covers completed regular-season and playoff appearances from October 1, 2025 through October 30, 2026, with matching dates, current club and participation rules for the all-game comparisons. McKenna’s entire Toronto sample is 15 appearances this season. These historical rates aren’t probabilities for Saturday.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All current-team games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Auston Matthews 2+ shots on goal |
−750 | 87.9% 29 of 33 Maple Leafs wins |
85.3% 64 of 75 appearances |
| Gavin McKenna Under 2.5 shots on goal |
−180 | 85.7% 6 of 7 Maple Leafs wins |
80.0% 12 of 15 appearances |
| Marco Rossi Under 0.5 assists |
−340 | 83.9% 26 of 31 Canucks losses |
73.9% 34 of 46 appearances |
Auston Matthews: 2+ shots on goal at −750
Matthews has reached two shots in 29 of his 33 Maple Leafs winning appearances, compared with 64 of 75 games overall. Six of Toronto’s seven wins this season cleared. The price is particularly short, so the room beneath a higher shooting target needs to matter to your choice.
Three shots was −250 and covered 22 of the 33 wins, seven fewer than two. The latest Edmonton win shows the difference: Matthews registered two shots and scored a goal in 17:13. Two would have cleared; three would have missed, even with a goal from him.
His last five shot totals are three, four, two, one and four. The one-shot game came in the loss to Calgary, with nineteen minutes on the ice. A substantial role did not supply the second shot that night.
He has also missed two while Toronto won. In the September win over the Islanders, Matthews finished with one shot and no points in 20:04. He had 4:45 of power-play ice time, so a long appearance and power-play opportunities still did not guarantee the modest target.
The Rangers win provides the opposite example. Four shots cleared comfortably despite Matthews finishing without a point in 19:16. Shots on goal and goals or assists are different asks; the lower shooting line can clear through a quiet night on the scoresheet.
His current average of about 21 minutes is close to the older Toronto sample. Last season’s two meetings with Vancouver brought five and seven shots in Maple Leafs wins, but those games overlap the table and do not add independent evidence for Saturday.
Two shots keeps seven more historical wins than three at a much smaller payout. At −750, you pay heavily for that cushion. The Islanders win and Calgary loss show that it remains possible to miss with ordinary playing time.
Gavin McKenna: under 2.5 shots on goal at −180
This under allows zero, one or two shots. It cleared in six of Toronto’s seven wins and twelve of McKenna’s 15 appearances in this window. That is a small, entirely current-season Toronto sample, with no older Toronto workload to use as a comparison.
His last five totals are two, one, one, one and three. Four stayed under. The latest Seattle loss was the miss: McKenna scored twice and added an assist with three shots in 15:33. Modest ice time did not keep him below the line when he was productive.
The only winning miss came against Nashville, when he recorded four shots, a goal and an assist in 14:45 as Toronto won 5–4. The under did not need a large workload to fail. That game belongs beside the six winning clears.
His current ice time averages about 13:46. The recent Columbus win brought two shots in 12:58, while the Rangers and Edmonton wins brought one apiece in 10:44 and 11:29. Those examples show the allowance in under 2.5, including a two-shot game right at its upper limit.
Toronto can receive a contribution from him without three shots. He recorded an assist in each of those Rangers and Edmonton wins while finishing on one shot. That describes what happened in those games, without promising the same role or outcome next time.
The −180 price offers a larger payout than Matthews’ two-shot floor, while relying on a different kind of contribution. With only seven winning appearances and a three-shot game most recently, give the current workload and those two misses more weight than a strong percentage alone.
Marco Rossi: under 0.5 assists at −340
Rossi needs to finish without an assist. This under cleared in 26 of his 31 Canucks losing appearances, compared with 34 of 46 games overall. Eight of ten Vancouver losses this season stayed under, a less consistent record than the longer losing-game history.
His last five assist totals are zero, one, zero, zero and zero. The miss came against Detroit: one assist in just 9:38 as Vancouver lost 5–2. A short appearance was enough for the under to fail, so a low ice-time expectation cannot settle this choice.
The latest loss to San Jose brought no assist in 11:15. He also had none in 17:06 during the preceding 6–5 win over Anaheim, including 3:18 on the power play. This under can clear in a high-scoring Canucks game; it does not require Vancouver to produce no offense.
A goal would not break an assist under. Rossi scored without an assist in Vancouver’s September win over Edmonton, playing 15:01. That game is in the all-game comparison rather than the losing-game record, and illustrates the narrower contribution this market measures.
His current average of 15:45 is below roughly 17:09 in the older Vancouver sample. He is listed on the second line, but Filip Chytil is on injured reserve. Check the current lineup rather than assume the earlier minutes or passing role will stay fixed.
At −340, the small payout needs consideration alongside the five historical losing-game misses. The assist in 9:38 against Detroit is a concrete reminder that one completed scoring play can be enough. This is a limit on Rossi’s assists, with no assurance supplied by a Toronto win.
Choose the contribution that fits your Toronto view
Matthews’ two-shot target kept seven winning clears that three would have lost, but at a much smaller payout. McKenna’s under costs less than that floor and comes with only seven winning appearances to judge. Rossi’s goal can leave his assist under intact; the assist in 9:38 against Detroit shows why low ice time alone isn’t protection. Weigh those different limits and prices separately—the records don’t establish a combined chance of clearing.
Prices can change. Compare current offers on the Maple Leafs–Canucks matchup page, or browse more NHL coverage.
More picks to build around
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.