Maryland has shown it can move the ball. Keeping that going—and avoiding mistakes that hand the opponent points—is the bigger question against Ohio State. With the Buckeyes a 34.5-point favorite at DraftKings, Saturday’s matchup is about more than which team looks stronger: can the Terps sustain enough drives to keep a difficult afternoon from getting away from them?
Maryland’s promising starts need staying power
Maryland’s 48-23 loss at Nebraska last Saturday captured both sides of its problem. The Terps led 23-14 during the second quarter and gained 300 yards before halftime, but managed just 62 yards after the break. They also converted only one of 14 third downs, bringing their two-game total to two conversions in 30 attempts.
There was a genuine bright spot: Chris Durr Jr. caught seven passes for 149 yards and a touchdown. That gives Maryland a recent example of meaningful production through the air. But Malik Washington also threw two interceptions, including one returned 81 yards for a touchdown. Against another strong opponent, productive stretches lose much of their value if stalled possessions and giveaways keep interrupting them.
Ohio State brings more than one way to gain yards
The Buckeyes beat Iowa 31-14 last Saturday behind Julian Sayin’s 324 passing yards and three touchdowns. Jeremiah Smith accounted for 206 receiving yards and two scores. Ohio State also held Iowa to 238 total yards while producing 484 itself.
We rate Ohio State more highly on both sides of the ball: A+ on offense and A on defense, compared with B grades for Maryland in both areas. Our passing and rushing projections anticipate a more balanced yardage mix for the Buckeyes—roughly 310 passing yards and 175 rushing yards, versus about 235 passing yards and 70 rushing yards for the Terps.
That comparison puts Maryland’s passing game at the center of its challenge. With less projected support on the ground, keeping possessions alive through the air becomes especially important. Durr’s performance at Nebraska provides an encouraging example; Maryland’s recent third-down results provide the counterweight.
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A strong favorite still has a demanding number
The current spread sets a much higher bar than simply winning comfortably. Ohio State’s recent results illustrate the distinction: it beat Illinois 42-19 on September 26, yet that 23-point victory fell short of the 25.5-point spread for that game.
The strongest case for Ohio State is its advantage on both sides of the ball, backed by a passing attack that just delivered against Iowa. Maryland’s best counterweight is its ability to generate receiving production and put together stretches like its first half at Nebraska. The deciding factor in that counterweight is whether those stretches become sustained drives rather than isolated highlights, without turnovers giving Ohio State extra scoring opportunities. At a spread this large, that difference matters even if the Buckeyes remain firmly in control.
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