Tyrese Haliburton’s return gave Indiana an encouraging start. Now comes a different test: can the Pacers turn their offensive rhythm into enough separation against Dallas? Indiana is a 7.5-point favorite at DraftKings, a meaningful hurdle against a Mavericks team that got 32 points from Cooper Flagg in its opener. With Haliburton heading into his home return, the interesting question is how much Indiana’s shared scoring can outweigh Dallas’ individual firepower.
Indiana has more than one way to get a basket
The Pacers beat New Orleans 123-120 on Wednesday behind 30 points from Pascal Siakam and 23 points and 12 assists from Haliburton. Obi Toppin added 20 points, while Ivica Zubac finished with 16 points and 14 rebounds. That’s a useful starting point for this matchup: Indiana didn’t need one scorer to carry the whole night.
Our assists projections give that passing game a prominent role again, with about 30 assists for Indiana compared with 26 for Dallas. We also project about 15 made 3-pointers for the Pacers and 12 for the Mavericks. Those numbers outline Indiana’s opportunity: spread the scoring around and create a meaningful difference from beyond the arc.
Dallas has a credible answer in Flagg, whose 32 points came in a 128-110 loss at Houston. Kyrie Irving scored 15 in his first regular-season appearance since his March 2025 knee injury. The bigger problem was a second quarter Dallas lost 38-12. Flagg supplied scoring; the Mavericks need a much steadier performance around it to stay within reach.
The total puts both defenses under scrutiny
The posted total of 240.5 puts the scoring options and defensive concerns in focus. Our grades put both teams at C on offense and D+ on defense. Those defensive assessments and Indiana’s projected 3-point production give the scoring outlook more substance than simply reacting to two high-scoring openers.
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There’s a counterweight, though: neither team has established consistency after just one game. Indiana scored only 18 points in the second quarter against New Orleans before recovering late, while Dallas’ attack stalled badly in Houston. At this total, those extended quiet stretches matter even when the available scorers look capable.
Availability also deserves attention. Indiana starter Aaron Nesmith is questionable with a hamstring injury, while Dallas center Dereck Lively II is out with a foot injury. Nesmith’s availability is the key unresolved personnel detail in Indiana’s starting group.
What matters most
Indiana’s strongest case for creating separation is its combination of Haliburton’s playmaking, several productive scoring options and the projected advantage in made 3-pointers. Dallas’ counter is Flagg’s scoring, with Irving back alongside him, while our matching team grades argue against treating the favorite as clearly superior across the board. The spread therefore asks more of Indiana than another productive offensive night: its passing and perimeter shooting need to build a cushion that Dallas’ scorers can’t quickly erase. For the total, the defensive concerns support a lively scoring outlook, but both teams’ opening-night dry spells leave sustained production as the main uncertainty at 240.5.
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