BYU hit 17 threes against Queens and still had to answer a comeback. That’s the tension against Montana State: the Cougars have plenty of ways to build a lead, but can they string together enough stops to make it stick? The Bobcats arrive with a double-double from Jeremiah Davis and two other scorers who just showed they can punish a defense from outside.
Montana State has a way to stay involved
Davis supplied 17 points and 10 rebounds in Montana State’s 83-70 win over Long Beach State. Jed Miller added 14 points, making four of eight threes, while Christian King scored 12 and went two of four from deep. That combination gives the Bobcats a plausible answer when BYU starts scoring in bunches: Davis competing for rebounds, with Miller and King converting the perimeter opportunities Montana State creates.
The Bobcats’ first two games this season also offer a useful contrast. They opened with an 84-74 road loss at Colorado State before beating Long Beach State, covering the stored spread in both games. They’ve already kept one road defeat competitive, but this matchup asks more of their offense. If Miller and King aren’t making shots, Davis’s work on the glass becomes even more important to keep empty possessions from piling up.
BYU’s balance is real; its separation needs work
Robert Wright III drove the 98-82 win over Queens with 21 points and six assists. Bruce Branch III, Jaxon Kohler and Nate Pickens each scored 15, and Collin Chandler added 12. BYU has put five players in double figures in each of its first three games. Montana State can’t build its entire defensive plan around stopping Wright when so many teammates have been finishing possessions.
But Queens showed why hot shooting alone doesn’t settle this matchup. BYU made 12 first-half threes, yet an 18-2 Queens run spanning halftime cut a 22-point deficit to six. The Cougars eventually pulled away and finished with a 36-24 advantage in paint scoring. Against Montana State, the question is whether they can find that inside production and defensive control before another opponent gets back into the game.
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The spread asks for sustained control
DraftKings lists BYU as a 23.5-point favorite. The case for laying that number needs more than another impressive shooting stretch. It needs BYU to end Montana State’s possessions and keep its own offense productive when the threes stop falling. We project 38.8 rebounds for BYU and 30.5 for Montana State, making the glass a key place to watch. If that advantage produces extra chances for the Cougars and limits Davis’s impact, sustained separation becomes easier to picture.
Montana State’s case with the points rests on turning that into a competitive rebounding matchup and getting enough from its shooters to interrupt BYU’s runs. Queens already demonstrated how quickly a large lead can shrink. If the Cougars again allow an opponent to answer a scoring burst with several productive possessions, their offensive depth may win the game without making the favorite’s price attractive.
At 164.5, both offenses have a job
The total is 164.5. BYU has scored 94, 108 and 98 points in its three games, while Montana State’s two games have finished with 158 and 153 combined points. The Cougars’ scoring gives this threshold a credible route, especially if Montana State’s perimeter players contribute rather than leaving BYU to carry the scoring.
For the over case, watch whether Wright’s creation and Montana State’s outside shooting produce scoring at both ends. For the under case, watch whether BYU controls the defensive glass and leaves the Bobcats struggling to extend possessions. The same rebounding advantage that could help the favorite separate could also hold down Montana State’s contribution to the total. Another BYU shooting barrage wouldn’t, by itself, answer the total question.
Watch the possessions after BYU’s first run
When BYU strings together baskets, watch Davis on the next defensive rebound and Miller and King on Montana State’s next few trips. Can the Bobcats settle the game, or do the Cougars turn one burst into lasting control? Visit the college basketball betting board to compare the spread and total as those two different matchup questions take shape.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
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