Northwestern needed one yard four times on third or fourth down against Iowa. It came up short every time. Ohio State had the opposite problem against Oregon. The Ducks found ways to keep drives alive and scored on four of five possessions after falling behind 14–0. When the Wildcats visit Columbus on Saturday, those short downs are a good place to watch for whether they can keep up.
The yard Northwestern needs
Iowa held the Wildcats to one conversion on 11 third downs and sacked Nicco Marchiol six times in Northwestern’s 24–10 loss. Even after Robert Fitzgerald’s third-quarter interception, the Wildcats settled for a 45-yard field goal. Iowa returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown. Our team grades give Northwestern an A-minus on offense, but that game showed how little the Wildcats can get from good field position if they can’t pick up the next first down.
DraftKings had Ohio State favored by 12.5 in the pregame snapshot. Bo Jackson’s two touchdown runs gave the Buckeyes a 14–0 lead in their 41–28 loss to Oregon, and Jeremiah Smith finished with 133 receiving yards. Oregon extended its first touchdown drive with a fake punt and used an interception to set up the score that put it ahead before halftime. Northwestern has a more ordinary way to make Ohio State wait for the ball. Converting third-and-one can keep a drive going and give the Wildcats a chance to answer before the Buckeyes get another possession.
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What the Wildcats get for those extra snaps
At 45.5, how those drives end matters as much as how long they last. Northwestern’s last two games reached 34 combined points against Iowa, even with the kickoff return touchdown, and 60 in a 34–26 loss at Oregon. If the Wildcats use up clock and punt, both teams have fewer chances to score. If those same drives end in touchdowns, Northwestern can keep the margin close and give Ohio State a reason to keep pressing for points.
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