USC has six wins, but its last game showed how quickly an offense can stall when the running game goes backward and passes turn into giveaways. Ohio State arrives as a 6.5-point favorite at DraftKings after surviving its own difficult passing day at Indiana. With our passing projections fairly close, the Trojans’ ability to get useful production on the ground and protect possessions gives this matchup its clearest test.
USC needs a more complete offense
Wisconsin beat USC 24-7 on Saturday, holding the Trojans to minus-17 rushing yards on 25 carries. Jayden Maiava threw two first-half interceptions and finished with 190 passing yards and a touchdown. Wisconsin also blocked a USC field-goal attempt late in the third quarter, according to the AP recap.
That left USC with too few reliable ways to score. The Trojans had beaten Penn State 31-23 in their previous game, a reminder that the Wisconsin performance isn’t their only recent reference point. Still, recovering from negative rushing production is a substantial task against an Ohio State defense we grade A+.
Our rushing projections put USC at about 108 yards, compared with 140 for Ohio State. The passing outlook is much closer: roughly 272 yards for the Trojans and 282 for the Buckeyes. USC has a plausible way to keep pace through the air, but finding more help on the ground would reduce the burden on that passing production.
Ohio State also had to work through mistakes
The Buckeyes beat Indiana 19-15 on October 17. Julian Sayin threw for 235 yards with two interceptions, but his 38-yard touchdown pass to Jeremiah Smith on fourth down early in the fourth quarter supplied a decisive score. Indiana later appeared to take the lead before Nick Marsh’s catch was ruled out of bounds, per the AP report.
Ohio State found a way through a game that remained uncertain late. That matters here because USC’s recent offensive trouble doesn’t erase the Trojans’ ability to make this competitive. Our offensive grades are A+ for both teams, while USC’s defense receives an A alongside Ohio State’s A+.
The total-yardage projections favor the Buckeyes, about 422 to USC’s 379. Most of the separation in the passing-and-rushing comparison comes on the ground. Ohio State has the broader production outlook; USC’s route to challenging it starts with avoiding another game in which the running attack finishes with negative yardage.
The season records against the spread add useful betting context. USC is 6-2 outright but has covered just two of eight games this season. Ohio State is 6-1 with five covers in seven. The Trojans have often won without meeting the spread, which makes the quality of their offensive response more useful to assess than their win total alone.
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The 51.5 total meets strong attacks and recent stalls
USC’s last three games have gone Under. Ohio State’s Indiana win also finished Under, although four of its seven games this season have gone Over. At a 51.5-point total, the close passing outlook and strong offensive grades offer a scoring case that the latest results don’t fully reflect.
Both defenses rate highly in our analysis, USC just struggled to run, and interceptions interrupted both teams’ latest passing performances. More productive rushing and cleaner possessions would give the offenses a better chance to turn their passing yardage into sustained scoring. Another game of giveaways and difficult ground gains would make that much harder.
Ohio State has the stronger overall matchup case through its defense and larger rushing outlook. USC’s passing projection keeps a competitive response within reach, but that response needs more support than the Trojans supplied at Wisconsin. Watch whether USC can establish useful rushing production without surrendering the possessions it needs to stay alongside the favorite.
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