Edmonton has the stronger all-around evaluation entering Wednesday’s game against Anaheim, but the Ducks have enough scoring punch to make this more than a test of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Anaheim’s challenge is turning its attacking talent into another win while holding up at the other end. Our grades show a much bigger gap between these teams defensively than they do in scoring ability.
Where Edmonton has the clearer edge
Our grades give Edmonton’s attack an A- and Anaheim’s a B+. The separation is larger on the defensive side: Edmonton earns a B with Devon Levi in net, while Anaheim receives a D+ with Lukas Dostal. These team evaluations incorporate the goalies, making the Ducks’ ability to contain Edmonton’s leading scorers the central matchup concern.
Edmonton’s 3-1 victory over Seattle on Saturday, Oct. 3 offers a useful example of how difficult that can be over a full game. Draisaitl broke a tie with 2:27 remaining before McDavid added an empty-net goal. Levi made 19 saves. Edmonton didn’t pull away early, but its top scorers settled the game late.
Anaheim has a way to answer
The Ducks’ 3-2 overtime win over Florida on Sunday, Oct. 4 showed why their attack deserves attention. Cutter Gauthier scored twice on the power play, Leo Carlsson contributed three assists and Mikael Granlund scored the overtime winner. All three Anaheim goals came with the man advantage, while Dostal made 29 saves.
That gives Anaheim a concrete path to competing here: get production from its leading forwards and capitalize when Edmonton takes penalties. Repeating a three-goal power-play performance is a demanding ask, but that win showed how much special teams can contribute to the Ducks’ scoring.
Our shot projections also suggest Edmonton won’t necessarily overwhelm Anaheim with volume. We project roughly 30 shots for the Oilers and 31 for the Ducks. With expected shooting volume that close, finishing and goaltending become more interesting than the small difference in shot counts.
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How that fits the moneyline
The DraftKings moneyline has Edmonton at -130 and Anaheim at +110, making the Oilers a modest road favorite. Our stronger Edmonton grades fit that favorite status, but Anaheim’s capable attack and comparable expected shooting volume provide a meaningful counterweight. The key is whether the Ducks can keep Edmonton’s scorers in check without needing another exceptional power-play night.
Edmonton’s more balanced evaluation is the strongest case for its favorite status, especially with McDavid and Draisaitl capable of deciding a close game late. Anaheim has a credible scoring response, but its weaker defensive grade puts more pressure on Dostal and the team in front of him. With little separating the shot projections, containing Edmonton’s top scorers matters more than simply keeping pace in attempts.
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