Oklahoma needed 20 plays to go 89 yards for the touchdown that put Florida away. Ole Miss spent much of its game against Georgia trying to get a drive going at all. In Norman, the Rebels have to make the most of the possessions they get. That starts with giving Trinidad Chambliss time to throw before Oklahoma can put together another long stretch with the ball.
Ole Miss needs to give Chambliss a cleaner pocket
Chambliss threw for 170 yards, took five sacks and was intercepted in the 42–7 loss to Georgia. The Rebels crossed midfield only once in the opening 22 minutes, and their lone touchdown came on an eight-yard run by Shekai Mills-Knight. That was a sharp drop from the 45 points Ole Miss scored against Auburn the previous week. Against Oklahoma, a productive run or quick completion on first down can keep the Rebels from having to throw with the pass rush already anticipating it.
Oklahoma’s short conversions kept Florida on the sideline
John Mateer ran for 56 yards and threw two short touchdown passes in the 23–7 win at Florida. His second scoring pass went to Isaiah Sategna III to finish a drive that took 12 minutes and 45 seconds off the clock. The Sooners also stopped a Florida scoring chance when Courtland Guillory intercepted a fourth-down pass in the end zone. If Mateer keeps Oklahoma in short-yardage situations again, the Sooners can keep Ole Miss waiting for the ball without needing many long gains.
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One stalled drive can swing the spread
DraftKings lists Oklahoma as a 1.5-point favorite on the spread. The Sooners’ win at Florida showed how they can protect a small lead, but they need to get ahead first. We project roughly 41 Ole Miss pass attempts and 31 for Oklahoma. That puts extra weight on how well the Rebels protect Chambliss. If he can turn those attempts into first downs, Ole Miss can make Oklahoma score on more of its own drives. If the Rebels take sacks and punt, Mateer gets more chances to put even a field goal between the teams.
What gets the total to 50
DraftKings set the total at 49.5. Six of Oklahoma’s nine games this season went under their own totals, but its last two games show how much the opponent can change the scoring. The Sooners scored 23 in a 30-point game against Florida and 25 in a 67-point game against South Carolina. Another long Oklahoma drive can produce seven and still leave fewer chances for either team to add points. The quicker route to 50 is for Ole Miss to turn its passing volume into touchdowns and force the Sooners to answer.
Watch what each quarterback faces on third down in the first quarter. If Mateer can run or throw while Chambliss is repeatedly looking downfield with several yards to go, Oklahoma can play at the pace it wants. If both teams are getting short thirds, look at which one turns those conversions into touchdowns.
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