Dylan Riley took a catch out of the backfield 73 yards on Boise State’s second snap against Colorado State. Oregon State gave up 386 rushing yards to Texas State that same weekend. The Beavers have to stop Riley from turning routine touches into touchdowns. If they can make Boise State take the long way downfield, Braden Atkinson and Jesse Legree have a chance to keep the score within reach.
Oregon State can move the chains through Legree
Legree caught eight passes for 99 yards in Oregon State’s 42–21 loss to Texas State, accounting for more than half of Atkinson’s 192 passing yards. AJ Newberry ran for a first-quarter touchdown, but the Beavers’ other two scores came in the fourth. At the other end, Torrance Burgess Jr. ran for 196 yards and Davian Jackson scored three times from short range. Oregon State needs a quicker start on offense in Boise. Early completions to Legree can extend drives and give the defense fewer possessions to handle Riley.
Boise State can get Riley the ball without a handoff
Riley ran for 192 yards and two touchdowns in Boise State’s 64–38 win over Colorado State. He also caught that long touchdown from Max Cutforth, who threw for 317 yards and four scores. Boise State scored touchdowns on its first four drives and punted only once. Colorado State still scored 38, with Hauss Hejny throwing for two touchdowns and running for another. The Broncos showed how fast they can get ahead, but Oregon State has a way to answer if Atkinson can keep finding Legree before the pass rush gets home.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Oregon State vs. Boise State picks.
See our model's picks for this game, plus the projections and trends behind them. Use PREVIEW20 for 20% off Premium Monthly. New members who qualify get 3 days free.
How Boise State can build a two-touchdown margin
DraftKings makes Boise State a 13.5-point favorite. We project about 226 rushing yards for Boise State and 324 passing yards for Oregon State. Riley gives the Broncos a way to sustain drives and win even if Oregon State moves the ball through the air. Covering depends on what the Beavers get out of those passing yards. If Atkinson turns them into touchdowns, Boise State has to keep scoring to pull away. If the Broncos get stops once the field shortens, Riley can help widen the margin without giving Oregon State many chances to answer.
Both offenses need to do their part at 65.5
In our game logs, seven of nine games for each team this season went over their own totals. This week’s 65.5 is higher than the combined score in either of Oregon State’s last two games. The Beavers scored 21 against Texas State and 22 against Fresno State, and those games finished at 63 and 60. A long touchdown from Riley can put 66 within reach quickly if Oregon State is finishing drives too. If Boise State gets its yards on long rushing possessions and the Beavers settle for field goals, the Broncos can control the game without matching the scoring pace they set at Colorado State.
Watch how Oregon State tackles Riley when he catches the ball in space. If the first defender can bring him down and Atkinson keeps converting third downs, the Beavers can make Boise State earn both its points and its possessions.
We break down every matchup
See the rest of the slate on the college football board.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.