Pascal Siakam scored 23 the last time Indiana played Dallas, even though the Pacers lost. He needed every point of his 20 against Memphis to clear the 19.5 line. If you’re backing Indiana in the rematch, those games show how different paths can get him there.
Look at Siakam’s scoring in Pacers wins and Cooper Flagg’s passing in Mavericks losses. Comparing those games with each player’s full record for the same club and seasons shows how much an Indiana win might matter to each line.
Two Pacers parlay picks to compare
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pascal Siakam Over 19.5 points 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular seasons |
−124 | 95.0% 19 of 20 IND wins |
78.9% 56 of 71 appearances |
| Cooper Flagg Under 6.5 assists 2025–26 and 2026–27 regular seasons |
+101 | 84.3% 43 of 51 DAL losses |
78.5% 62 of 79 appearances |
Pascal Siakam: Over 19.5 points
Siakam reached 20 in 19 of 20 Indiana wins across the two seasons. His three wins this season produced 20 against Memphis, 21 against Brooklyn and 30 against New Orleans. Memphis is a reminder of how little room there is at this line. He also scored 13 in a loss to Miami, a more recent example of how far below it he can finish.
Cooper Flagg: Under 6.5 assists
Flagg stayed under seven assists in all three Dallas losses he played this season, with two against Houston, six against Sacramento and five against San Antonio. The broader loss record also favors the under, but he recorded 11 assists against Miami and 12 against Brooklyn in wins this season. Those games show what his passing can look like in a different game result.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Pacers vs. Mavericks picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PARLAY20.
What to weigh with an Indiana win
If you expect Siakam to keep getting shots, his scoring line has the longer record of coming through in the result you’re backing. Flagg’s under pays more at the listed prices, but he had six assists against Sacramento, so one more would have flipped it. Follow the live Pacers at Mavericks matchup and our NBA coverage.
More picks to build around
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.