Green Bay put up 45 points at New England last week, with Jordan Love throwing for three touchdowns. The Packers also moved the ball through the air in their first meeting with Minnesota. They lost that game after the Vikings scored the final 29 points.
If you think Green Bay wins the rematch, start with whether Love can turn those passing gains into touchdowns. Matthew Golden’s yards offer another way to look at the passing game. On Minnesota’s side, Justin Jefferson’s line gives you a way to assess how much changes with Kirk Cousins back.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Love Over 1.5 passing TDs |
−121 | 83.3% 5 of 6 GB wins |
88.9% 8 of 9 games |
| Justin Jefferson Under 83.5 receiving yards |
−114 | 90.0% 9 of 10 MIN losses |
79.2% 19 of 24 games |
| Matthew Golden 50+ receiving yards |
−283 | 83.3% 5 of 6 GB wins |
77.8% 7 of 9 games |
Jordan Love · Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Love needed only 29 attempts to throw three touchdowns at New England. He threw two against Minnesota in Week 1 as well, even though Green Bay lost. He’s reached two in five of six Packers wins and eight of nine games overall. The first meeting shows he can clear it even when the defense gives up a lead.
Minnesota still enters the rematch second in passing yards allowed per game. In Green Bay’s win over Dallas, Love had 276 passing yards and just one touchdown pass. The distinction matters with Josh Jacobs out. More passing volume can help create chances, but Love still has to finish two drives with a throw.
Justin Jefferson · Under 83.5 receiving yards
Jefferson finished with 33 yards against Detroit and 58 against Buffalo, Minnesota’s two losses this season. Buffalo is the example to watch. The Vikings looked his way 11 times and completed only three of those passes. The under can survive a busy target day if Green Bay makes those throws difficult to complete.
Jefferson had 92 yards and two touchdowns against Green Bay in the opener. Now he gets a quarterback he already knows in Cousins, and no game in the table includes Cousins throwing to him. T.J. Hockenson is out and Jordan Addison is questionable. If Minnesota funnels more throws to Jefferson and they connect downfield, the old loss split tells you less.
Matthew Golden · 50+ receiving yards
Golden had 95 yards against Minnesota in Week 1 and 164 at New England last week. A 43-yard catch on a drive that started at Green Bay’s own 2 against the Patriots shows how he can get most of the way to 50 on one play. Green Bay can also get him there on catches that move the chains, even if Watson gets the longer looks.
The 50-yard line costs more than the 60-yard alternative. The extra room mattered in the win over the Jets, when Golden finished at 58. He had only 21 yards in the win at Tampa Bay, so a Packers win can still leave him short when the downfield chances go elsewhere.
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How do you see Green Bay winning?
Love’s line fits a game where Green Bay finishes drives through the air. Golden’s line fits a view about who gets the yards. If your read depends more on the Packers limiting Minnesota’s passing game, the Jefferson under is the more direct option, with Cousins’ return the biggest change to account for.
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