Seven months after Seattle beat New England 29-13 in Super Bowl LX, the teams meet again with a new season, a different venue and changed personnel. Rather than simply replaying the championship game, Wednesday’s opener asks a more useful question: Can the Patriots’ reworked offense find a better answer for the Seahawks’ defense?
Patriots vs. Seahawks game details and odds
- Matchup: New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
- Date and time: Wednesday, Sept. 9, 2026, at 5:20 p.m. PT
- Venue: Lumen Field in Seattle
- Records: Both teams enter Week 1 at 0-0
The New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks matchup opened the week with Seattle favored by three points at DraftKings. As of 8:12 a.m. PT on Sept. 8, the Seahawks were -3 at -118, New England was +3 at -102 and the total was 44.5. Seattle’s moneyline was -170, with the Patriots at +142.
Seattle’s defense remains the defining matchup
The Super Bowl result matters, but it is not a ready-made blueprint for Week 1. Seattle went 10-0 straight up and 7-3 against the spread over its final 10 listed games of the 2025 season, including the playoffs, using each game’s stored line. New England went 8-2 straight up and 6-4 ATS over its corresponding 10-game sample, with losses to Seattle and Buffalo.
An NFL.com schedule overview noted that Seattle returns much of its championship defense, and our current grades identify that unit as the clearest separation in this matchup. The Seahawks carry an A defensive grade and an A overall grade. New England is graded A- overall, with an A- offense and B+ defense.
That presents a familiar problem for Drake Maye even though the players around him have changed. Our projections have New England producing 336.6 total yards, including 222.4 through the air and 114.2 on the ground. A projected workload of 31.9 pass attempts and 28.5 rushing attempts points to balance rather than an offense built entirely around Maye dropping back.
Why the rematch could look different
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels said New England learned from the February defeat while acknowledging that both rosters have changed, according to NFL.com. Maye has also discussed the motivation of opening on the road during Seattle’s banner celebration while emphasizing lessons from the loss in an NFL.com interview.
Availability will affect how much flexibility New England has. Center Ben Brown is out with a knee injury, while running back TreVeyon Henderson is questionable with an ankle injury after remaining sidelined at Monday’s practice. Rhamondre Stevenson sits atop the running back depth chart, but Henderson’s status still matters for the rotation behind him.
Editor’s note (Sept. 8): TreVeyon Henderson has since been ruled out for Wednesday’s game against Seattle.
Seattle has offensive questions of its own. Zach Charbonnet is out as he continues recovering from a torn ACL, and wide receiver Tory Horton is questionable with a hamstring injury. Even so, our projections give the Seahawks 350.7 total yards, a modest edge over New England’s 336.6, with Sam Darnold projected for 229.6 passing yards.
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How the line fits the matchup
Seattle’s three-point spread sits alongside its home-field advantage and stronger overall grade, but New England is not being priced as an overmatched visitor. Both offenses carry A- grades, while the clearest grading separation belongs to Seattle’s defense. That helps frame the market without answering whether laying a full field goal offers value.
Our current side and total ratings are both three stars out of five, signaling measured rather than top-tier conviction. The projected yardage helps describe the expected shape of the game, but it is not independent confirmation of a projected score or cover probability.
What will decide the rematch?
New England’s changed supporting cast should give Seattle different problems than it faced in February. The burden is still on the Patriots to show those changes can close the matchup’s clearest gap: their offense against Seattle’s A-graded defense. With the spread sitting on three, how well Maye handles that challenge matters more than the rematch label.
Final injury designations and market movement could alter that picture before kickoff. Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.