Colorado has the stronger case on paper, but its goaltending gives Pittsburgh a reason to push back. The Avalanche are -192 favorites for Friday’s matchup with the Penguins, and our projections point to a clear advantage in shooting volume. Whether that advantage produces a comfortable night is another question: Mackenzie Blackwood’s uneven early results leave an opening for a Pittsburgh team whose scoring has recently cooled.
Colorado has the volume advantage
Our shot projections put Colorado at about 34 shots on goal and Pittsburgh at 28. That’s a meaningful difference in expected workload for the goalies, though it doesn’t tell us how dangerous those shots will be.
Nathan MacKinnon centers Colorado’s top line with Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas, while Sidney Crosby plays between Rickard Rakell and Bryan Rust for Pittsburgh. Our grades favor the Avalanche at both ends: Colorado earns an A+ for its attack and an A- defensively, compared with Pittsburgh’s B and C. Together, the shooting outlook and team evaluations give Colorado a stronger foundation than its 4-2-1 record alone might suggest.
Pittsburgh’s clearest counter starts with Crosby. He scored twice in the Penguins’ 5-3 loss at Chicago on Tuesday, including a third-period equalizer before the Blackhawks pulled away. Still, Pittsburgh has scored no more than three goals in each of its last five games. The Penguins need more from their attack than that recent stretch has usually delivered.
The goalies complicate the favorite’s price
Blackwood’s recent outings have produced a .879 save percentage across five appearances. His latest was better—24 saves on 26 shots in a win at Dallas—but he also allowed five goals on 22 shots against Toronto. That range matters when weighing Colorado’s -192 moneyline: the stronger team can still leave itself vulnerable if it doesn’t get steady saves.
Arturs Silovs has been similarly variable for Pittsburgh. He has an .885 save percentage across his four recent appearances, with two five-goal outings alongside a shutout and a one-goal appearance against Dallas. Those results give Pittsburgh a plausible route to staying close, but little basis for assuming Silovs will consistently erase Colorado’s expected shot advantage.
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What that means for the 6.5 total
The 6.5-goal total brings those competing signals into focus. Colorado’s strong attacking grade, expected shooting volume and Silovs’ uneven results all create scoring potential. Blackwood’s early inconsistency also gives Pittsburgh an opening to contribute.
The counterweight is recent output. Along with Pittsburgh’s five-game stretch of three goals or fewer, Colorado has scored three or fewer in each of its last three games. The Avalanche most recently lost 3-2 to Dallas in a shootout on Wednesday, though they also had two first-period goals disallowed. That detail makes the latest score a less straightforward sign of a stalled attack. At 6.5, the tension is between two goalies’ uneven recent results and attacks that haven’t consistently turned their opportunities into big scoring nights.
The matchup’s biggest pressure point
Colorado’s expected shooting edge is the strongest reason to respect its favorite status. Pittsburgh’s opportunity is to get more from Crosby’s line while testing a goalie who hasn’t yet been consistently reliable. The key distinction for bettors is between liking Colorado’s matchup and being comfortable paying -192: the Avalanche have the better foundation, but Blackwood’s ability to build on his latest outing matters when that price leaves less room for an uneven night. The same uncertainty keeps the 6.5 total from being a simple story about Colorado’s attack.
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